FRANCE’s Economic Sentiment Indicator deteriorated further and slid to 83.3 from the previous month while the Euro area at 74.9 points nearly matched a minimal level of 73 points topped in July 1993. The EU 27 ESI recorded its first historical low at 70.5 points. Out of the Euro area, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, Slovenia and Greece each dived to their worst levels ever observed respectively 63.3 points (from the previous month 66.1), 78.4 (from 83.8) 77.3 (from 88.8) 55.4 (from 85.2) and 66.7 (from 72.9). Germany’s ESI fell to 82.3 from 88.6. The EU 27 saw Denmark’s ESI plunge to a historical low as well, at 69.4 points (from 74.7) along with Estonia at 63.3 points (from 68.9), Latvia at 61.8 (from 70.1), Lithuania at 69.4 (from 78.7) Hungary at 44.7 (from 66.4) Slovakia at 60.4 (from 72.1) and the UK at 61.6 from (70.4). Finland’s pessimism remained as its ESI tumbled over ten points, while Sweden’s declined by half from the previous month. 

France’s Industrial Confidence Indicator kept plummeting, to -29 from the previous month abysmal -21. Germany’s tumbled 10 points as well to -28 (from -18 the previous month). The EU 27 at -25 points neared a historical low at -27 points in November 1992 while the Euro area’s index also at -25 (from the previous month -18) only edged four points from May 1993 at -30 points. Lowest ever recorded indices included Luxembourg -44 points (-32 in October), Greece -18 (from -12) Finland -32 (from -17), and Hungary at -24 (from -14). Sweden’s -28 points stayed only one point away from -29 points observed in October 2001.

Production expectations followed a similar downward trend: France’s fell to -26 points, close to its historical low -30 points of 1993 when recession hit. The EU 27 topped its historical low -23 points (-14 the previous month) and similarly, the Euro area at -22 points (-13 in October). A total nine member states for both regions mirrored such output gaps: in Denmark, the indicator nose dived to -32 points (from -18), in Greece to 1 (from 10), in Estonia to -20 (from -15), in Lithuania to -46 (from -29), in Hungary to -33 (from -14), in the Netherlands to -8 (from -5) in Portugal to -22 (from -14), in Slovenia to -11 (from 4), in Finland to -25 (from -9) and in the UK to -34 (from -27) four points from a historical low -38 recorded in 1991. Order books recorded bleak levels and fell in the EU 27 to -35 (from -23), in the Euro area to -35 (from -25). France’s dived to -39 (from -28), Germany’s to -29 (from -21), the Netherlands to -17 (from -8) Austria to -46 (from -39) Spain -33 points along with Hungary -40, posted historical lows. Export order books fared similarly, to -46 in France (from -29), to -32 (from -25) in the EU 27 and to -34 (from -26) in the Euro area. Out of Nordic states, Finland observed strong performance by comparison shedding only one point to -35 from -34, while Denmark’s export order books indicator tumbled to -24 points from -17 and Sweden’s to -34 (from -18)The UK’s stayed stable at -17 compared with the previous month.

Source: Eurostat

Stocks of finished products were kept tightly managed, rising modestly despite such dire environment: the Euro area’s rose two points to 17 (from 15), the EU 27 to 18 (from 16) and France’s to 21 (from 18). Spain and the Netherlands recorded stable stocks but Finland’s jumped to 24 from 17. Production trends observed in recent months reflected nearly non existent activity: the Euro area’s fell to -25 only one point from a historical low at -26 in January 1993. The EU 27 recorded its own worst performance at -24 (from -14), including Slovakia, Slovenia, and the Czech Republic. France’s indicator deteriorated to -18 (from -12) while Italy’s remained stable at -29. France’s other main trading partners, the UK fared no better, the indicator dipped to -22 (from -15), Spain to -39 (from -22), and Germany to -26 (from -13). Denmark’s topped its historical low at -29 (from -19 the previous month), Finland’s index fell to -15 (from -6) and Sweden to -22 (from -8) only five points from a historical low of July 1991. Employment expectations took a minimalist turn: France’s worsened to -30 (from -22), along with its major trading partners. The Euro area’s declined to -22 (from -16) and the EU 27 to -23 from -19. Denmark posted a historical low -27 points. Selling price expectations were slashed by more than half: in the EU 27 the indicator fell to 1 from 8 and in the Euro area to 1 from 6. France’s more modestly declined to 5 (from 9). By comparison, in Belgium the index was cut to -6 (from -4), in the Czech Republic to -5 (from -2), in Spain to -6 (from -3) in Latvia to -4 (from 8) in Lithuania to -14 (from -2) in the UK to 5 (from 18), in Sweden to -5 (from 6), in Finland to -5 (from nil) and in Denmark to 1 (from 9). Industrial Investment surveys, expressed in percentage value compared with the previous year, revealed that 2009 is projected to be either exempt of any investment, such as in the UK and in Italy, or decline substantially such as in France - 4, in Denmark -5, or in Finland -4. The Euro area’s and the EU 27 indices are also expected to fall to -3. Per industrial branch for the 2008-2009 period, and expressed in percentage value year on year, investments in France are projected to fall in the Intermediate Goods sector to -3 (from 6) in the Durable Consumer Goods group to -19 (from 19) in Food and Beverage to -14 (from nil), in the Non Durable Goods group to -9 (from 2) and in the Consumer Goods sector to -12 (from 2).

FRANCE’s Economic Sentiment Indicator plunged -6.5% to 86.5 points from the previous month 93 points summarizing the debacle that has been affecting the industrial sector as a direct consequence of a global recession. In the EU 27, the strongest ESI drops were recorded by France’s main trading partners and involved the Netherlands -11.3% Italy -6.1% the UK -5.7% Poland -5.1% Germany -4.8% and Spain -3.5% Out of east European member states, Bulgaria’s ESI collapsed -15 points, the Czech Republic’s fell to 91.4 points from 97.4 points. Nordic countries observed similar pessimism as Denmark’s ESI fell to 74.8 points (from 79.9) slightly above its long term average of 72.2 points. Finland’s dipped to 87.7 points (from 91.2) and Sweden’s to 89.7 from 94.3 points. France’s Industrial Confidence Indicator bit the previous month record low and nose dived to -19 (from -14) along with Germany -18 (from -11) Spain -27 (from -22) Italy -16 (from -11) and the UK -26 (from -19). Nearly non existent production expectations accounted for this deteriorating environment: France ’s index plummeted to -3 (from -13) toping its long-term average of 6. Germany’s collapsed to -18 (from -8), Spain’s to -15 (from -10) close to its minimum value index of -19 in 1993. Italy’s fell to -4 from 5 and the UK’s dived to -27 from -25. Other EU 27 member states followed suit. Poland’s index fell to 11 from 14, Slovakia’s to -20 (from -18) Hungary’s tumbled to -14 from -4 Denmark’s to -18 from -8 and the Czech Republic to -12 from 4.

The order books index fared similarly : France’s neared rock bottom at -27 (from -22) well behind its long-term average of -15. Germany’s declined to -19 (from -14) Spain’s to -38 (from -33) Italy’s to -37 (from -27) and the UK’s to -30 (from -22). Greece’s -50 index recorded its worst minimum value index. Stock of finished products consequently kept increasing, while the production trends observed in recent months index confirmed drastic industrial slow down : France’s fell to -12 (from -9) wel below its long-term average at 5 along with the UK’s at -15 (from -8) with a long-term average index at -1. The export order books index dragged the overall sentiment indicator further down with performances nearing minimalist levels: France’s kept plunging to -28 (from -27) the UK’s to -17 (from -9). Nordic countries saw Finland’s nose dive to -34 (from -25 with a long-term average at -5) Sweden’s to -18 (from -15 and 3) and Denmark’s to -17 (from -19 and 2) Out of east European member states, Lithuania’s order books index collapsed to -47 (from -39) and Slovakia’s to -29 (from -15). The capacity utilizations in the manufacturing industry index, measured quarterly, heralded dire times: France’s dipped to 84.1 (from the previous quarter 85.9) Germany’s to 84.8 (from 86.2) while Italy’s fell to 75.2 , below its long-term average of 76.6, and the UK’s to 78 only a few points above its minimum value index at 77.4 in Q1 1993. Similarly, Finland’s fell to 81.9 (from 84.3) hardly one point from its minimal value index at 80.7 in Q1 1993. The quarterly production capacity in the manufacturing industry index doubled in most member states and nearly tripled in some: Finland’s jumped to 35 from 14, Sweden’s to 38 from 18 and Denmark’s to 26 from 18. France’s rose to 16 from 7, and Spain’s to 14 from 7. 

Source: Eurostat

The capacity utilization by industrial branch index heralded dire consequences on the labor market with main sectors affected the most: in Q4, the motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers group index fell to 82.6 from 89.3, machinery and equipment to 84.6 from 86.4, non metallic mineral products to 77.8 from 80.2 only a few points from its minimum value index at 76.1 reached in Q4 1993, printing and publishing to 78.7 from 81.1 (minimum value of 77 in Q3 1993) and food and beverages to 75.9 levels considered its minimum value index (from 77.2). In a domino effect, the estimated months in numbers of production assured by orders on hand in the EU in Q4/08 arched over, having shrunk drastically to three months on average per member state: France’s totaled 3.6 months, Germany’s 2.8 months, Finland’s 2.7 months very close to its minimum value index of 2.5 months in Q2/2005. Sweden remained the exception with 13.4 months of production ahead. The export volume by industrial branch index mirrored this downward trend: the motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers sector volume in Q4 is expected to nose dive to -46, its lowest value index, machinery and equipment to -13 (minimum value index of -15 was reached in Q1 2001) non metallic mineral products to -14 also its lowest value index, printing and publishing to -8 (only two points from its lowest value index of -10 in Q3 1994) and food and beverages to 4. Despite such grim perspectives, France’s selling price expectations index at 10 (from 12) remains too high, compared with other EU member states: Spain’s producer prices are expected to drop to -3 from 10, Finland’s to nil from 16, Denmark’s to 9 from 18,the UK’s to 18 from 30 and Germany’s to 7 from 11. East European members states plan similar price cuts: in the Czech Republic to -2 from 7, in and Hungary to 7 from 14 with the exception in Romania where prices are likely to remain high, to 34 from 27.

FRANCE’s Industrial Confidence Indicator dived to a new record low -13 (-11 in August) impacted by negative indicators tumbling below average similarly to its major EU trading partners. Germany’s ICI fell to -11 (-9 in August) Spain’s to -22 (-18 the previous month) Italy’s to -11 from -9 and the UK’s to -19 (from -13) In the Euro area, Finland recorded a similar negative trend as industrial confidence dipped to -13 from -10. Production expectations remained in the red in France -3 similarly to August and below average at 7. The Euro area’s did not fare better : the indicator fell two points to -5 from -3. Germany’s stayed flat at -8, Spain’s slid further -10 (from -8) unlike Italy’s which picked up to 5 from nil. Out of the EU 27, the UK’s plunged to -15 from -10 . 

Source: Eurostat

France’s deteriorating order books -21 from -13, reflected the Euro area’s where the indicator plummeted to -21 from -14. Germany’s performed similarly with order books diving to -14 from -18. The UK’s dip -22 from -14 impacted downwards the EU 27 along with most member states. On the same period, the export order books indicator in France reached a record low -26 (-14 in August) below its negative average of -11. The Euro area’s -19 reflected Germany’s worsening export order books -12 from -6 Spain’s -25 from -20, and Italy’s -28 from -19. The UK’s indicator collapsed to -9 from nil. Out of the EU 27, Denmark’s dived to -19 from -6 and Poland’s to -46 from -44 while Romania’s stagnated at -7. 

Source: Eurostat

Production trends observed in recent months confirmed that hard times have been lingering: the Euro area’s indicator fell to -11 from an already negative -3 pushed down by France’s index dipping to -9 from 4, along with Germany to -13 from -5 Finland to nil from 4 Spain’s to -17 from -14 and Italy’s to -21 from -14. Out of the EU 27, Poland’s indicator slumped to -6 from 1, the UK’s to -8 from -5 and Romania’s to 8 from 10. Stocks of finished products stayed consequently high: France’s grew to 16 from 15 the Euro area’s to 13 (from 12) Germany’s to 12 (from 11) Spain’s to 23 from 21, Italy’s to a less alarming 9 from 8 while Finland’s slightly fell back to 18 (from 21). The UK’s recorded one of the highest increase, to 21 from 15. As a result the employment expectations indicator in the industrial sector worsened in France to -17 below average ( -15 last month) similarly to the Euro area’s to -13 from -11. Germany’s fell less drastically although remaining in negative figures -11 from -10 Finland’s dived to -14 from -6, and Spain’s to -15 from -10. The UK’s index rose a modest point to -20 from -21 while Sweden’s deteriorated to -25 from -21. Selling price expectations indices where thus revised down in France to 14 (from 24) similarly to the Euro area’s to 15 (from 19). The construction confidence indicator negative figures arched over all other indices: in France, the indicator dipped to -5 from -2 and in the Euro area to -20 (from -18) New members states where construction activities had slowed down plunged further: in Latvia the index collapsed to -46 (from -43) in Romania to -7 (from -6) as order books froze. France’s plummeted to -16 from -13 taking price expectations in that sector down one modest point to -2 (from 1). Stronger price cuts are expected in Finland to -16 from 2, in Austria to 25 (from 32) in the Netherlands to 43 from 50, in Latvia to -2 (from 13) in Greece from an already negative -14 to an even lower -25, In Germany to -14 from -10 in Denmark to -26 from -20 and in the Czech Republic to 38 from 45. The services sector indicator in France also reflected flat activities unlikely to improve in the next three months similarly to the UK’s to -19 from -15.

FRANCE’s Industrial Confidence Indicator recorded the hardest fall to -11 from -6 out of the Euro area and the EU 27 taking its Economic Sentiment Indicator to slid 5 points to 93.5 although well above the Euro area’s 88.7 and the EU 27 rating of 89.5 A series of negative indicators impacted France’s economic slow down : the Retail and Construction sectors confidence indicators dipped respectively to -10 (from -7 in June) and to -4 (from 6). Production expectations indices fell to 6 from 2, nearly similarly to the Euro area’s 1 (from 4 in June) and the EU 27 1 (from 5): Germany’s production expectations fared similarly dipping to -1 from 3 along with Malta to -12 from -6 and the UK’s to -5 from 1. Denmark and Slovakia performed better with production expectations climbing respectively to 15 from 2 and to 10 from 8 along with the Czech Republic to 17 (from the previous month 14) Romania to 15 (13 in June) and Sweden, up 2 points from 2. Finland’s production expectations stayed stable at 2.

Source: Eurostat

Order books fell similarly to production expectations in France, to -15 from -9. In Germany, order books declined to -5 (from -2), in the Czech Republic to 5 from 12 and in Bulgaria to -21 from an already dire -16. Export order books in France shrank by half to -13 (from June -6), Germany’s fell to -5 from nil, Spain’s plunged to -21 from -16 while Sweden’s recorded the strongest decline -31 from -9. The UK observed the only order books relief and gained one point to 11 from 10. In the Euro area and as a result, overall order books dipped to -10 from -7 and in the EU 27 to -12 from -9. Stocks of finished products consequently climbed in France to 18 (from 14 in June) and in the Euro area less alarmingly to 11 from 9 despite Finland‘s jumping to 21 from 12, since Spain‘s fell to 16 from 22 and Germany‘s to 8 from 7. The EU 27 order books performed better and only grew by one point to 11 from 10 although the UK’s rose to 15 from 9. Romania’s fell to nil from 3 and Hungary’s to -2 from 2. Production trends observed in recent months in France, revealed an indicator slashed by half to 5 from the previous month, and, added to this domino effect locally. In the Euro area, production trends rescinded less drastically to -2 from 1 and in the EU 27 from -5 to -2. Out of most substantial production trends declines, Finland’s dived to 9 from 16, Bulgaria’s to 19 from 28, while Poland’s went from 4 to to nil. The Netherlands' rose a modest 3 from 2. As a result of such dire perspectives, employment expectations in France deteriorated and shrank further, to -13 from an already negative -10, and similarly in the Euro area, to -11 from -8 along with the EU 27 to -7 from -4.The UK recorded the biggest job cuts expected with its indicator plunging to -29 from -23. Germany also sent its indicator into the red zone to -5 from -3.

Source: Eurostat

Selling price expectations nevertheless rose due to inflationary raw materials and oil products: in France the indicator grew to 25 from 21 and more aggressively in the Euro area to 23 (from 19 in June). The EU 27 observed a similar trend with its indicator climbing to 20 (from 16 in June): Luxembourg’s indicator revealed that prices are expected to jump to 36 from 17, Finland’s to 27 from 13, the UK’s to 38 from 29 and Slovakia’s to 32 from 28. Inversely, expectations are lower in Bulgaria where the index declined to 26 from 31, along with Denmark to 10 (from 20 in June) and Hungary to 20 (from 24).

Source: Eurostat

Consequently, the manufacturing industry remains pessimistic for Q3 due to stagnating capacity utilizations, 82.8 in the Euro area and 82.9 in the EU 27, with France’s at 86.1 or nearly stable compared with the previous quarter. Production capacities  are therefore expected up on the same period : to 7 from 2 in France, to 14 from 9 in the Euro area, and to 11 from 7 in the EU 27, since new orders are foreseen to decline: to an abysmal -5 from 15 in France, to -7 from 1 in the Euro area, and to -8 from -1 in the EU 27. Similarly, export volume expectations remain on a downward trend and are seen to plunge in France to -4 from 13, in the Euro area to 4 from 11, in Germany to 10 from 14, and in the EU 27 to 5 from 10. The assessment of business situations over the past 3 months reflected therefore this grim environment: down to -2 in France from 4, in the Euro area to -8 from 2, and in the EU 27 to -7 from 4. Italy’s indicator collapsed to -42 from -6, the UK’s to -21 from -13, Austria’s to 2 from 10, Sweden’s rescinded to 21 from 28, the Netherlands' to 6 from 12, Germany’s to 5 from 11 with one exception, Romania, up to 21 from 18, unlike Latvia's and Lithuania's dipping each to -11 from -4. The evolution of demand over the past 3 months mirrored the assessment indicator and fell to 6 from 10 in France, in Germany to 8 from 17. The Euro area‘s declined by half to 4 and the EU 27 to 4 from 10. The evolution of employment over the next 3 months stayed thus dire, with down staffing expected overall: in France the indicator fell to 2 from 6, in the Euro area to 6 from 5 and in the EU 27 more drastically to 3 from 7. The UK remained the exception with its indicator climbing to 8 from nil. Italy’s indicator shrank the most to -11 (from 2 in June) and Nordic member states followed this negative trend: in Finland the indicator fell to 1 (from 8) and in Sweden to 4 (from 13).

FRANCE’s Economic Sentiment indicator dipped 2.5 points to 103.1 pushed down by a declining Industry indicator sliding to -1 from 1, similarly to Services to 8 from 10, along with Retail trade to nil from 2 and Construction to 13 from 17. In the Euro area, the ESI did not fare better falling to 98.1 from 101.9, dragged down by the Industry indicator falling to -2 from nil, Services to 6 from 11, Retail trade collapsing to -6 from 1 and Construction to -11 from -9 Out of the same region, Germany’s Retail trade indicator dived to -18 from -16 Construction fell further to -29 from -25. Out of the EU 27, Denmark’s Retail trade indicator recorded a substantial drop to 6 from 13. Most East European member states recorded general ESI declines with the exception of Romania due to its Retail trade indicator climbing to 24 from 22.

Source: Eurostat

Out of the Industry indicator, production expectations in the Euro area fell to 8 from 10 but France’s grew to 18 from 16. The UK recorded one of the hardest fall out of the EU 27, to -5 from 1 and similarly Malta to 8 from 18. Order books entered the red zone in the Euro area, declining to -6 from an already negative -2 and France’s followed to -4 from -1. Germany’s declined to 1 from 5 along with Austria to -16 from -11, Sweden’s picked up to -4 from an abysmal -11, inversely to the UK to -7 from 4 while Finland’s fell to 2 from 12.

Source: Eurostat

As a direct result of this general slow down, France’s stocks of finished products grew to 17 from 11 while the Euro area’s stable at 8 accounted for a new record beating its 2007 previous record at 3. Germany’s stocks stayed stable at 6 while Hungary’s climbed to 2 from -1, Malta’s to 5 from -1, Austria to 5 from 2 and Sweden’s to 11 from 8. Finland’s stayed the exception with stocks down to 10 from 14 along with other best performers which included Denmark to 5 from 15, Lithuania, with stocks declining although modestly to 15 from 17, the UK to 9 from 13, and Romania to -1 from 2. 

Source: Eurostat

Production trends observed in recent months ,down to 2 from 9, confirmed high stock levels in the Euro area (maximum value was reached in 1995 at 18) and France’s fell to 9 from 15 (with maximum production trends at 36 in 1995). In the EU 27, production trends fell to nil, as most member states’ collapsed: in the Netherlands to 4 from 11, in Slovenia to -2 from 19 in Slovakia to 6 from 27 and in the UK by half, to 7 from 16. Romania even reached production trends (10) below its average, (14) and Germany’s nil edged close to its own -2 average.

Export order books in the Euro area also entered a downwards trend, sliding to -3 from -2 pushed down by Germany’s to 2 from 5, the Netherlands to 2 from 7 Italy’s to -20 from -17, Austria’s to -28 from -22, and Belgium‘s to -8 from 1. France’s climbed a very modest 1 from nil. The assessment of business situations over the past three months reflected this downward curve, in the Euro area down to nil from 6 but stable in France, and the evolution of demand in the past three months corroborated this trend, dipping to 9 from 16 in France and to 7 from 14 in the Euro area. Over the next three months, pessimism remains in the Euro area, as the indicator is expected to slide to 11 from 12 unlike France’s expected to climb to 8 from 6 similarly to Finland’s to 28 from 24.

Source: Eurostat

As regards employment expectations, the Euro area’s worsened overall, down to -4 following two months of a negative yet stable -3, France’s declined further to -5 from -4. In the EU 27, Lithuania’s employment expectations dived to 14 from 18 and in Hungary to 20 from 25. Only two member states, the Netherlands and Cyprus, recorded stable indicators for that sector, respectively 8 and 18. Over the next three months, no improvement is expected as the indicator is forecasted to fall further in the Euro area to 9 from 11 and in France to 9 from 10.

Selling price expectations remain unevenly spread: although they are expected to decline in the Euro area, down to 14 from 15 similarly to France’s to 13 from 15, Germany’s are expected to climb to 14 from 13 along with Portugal’s to 14 from 11 while Belgium’s expects lower prices to 9 from 13, along with Romania’s to 23 from 31, and Denmark to 8 from 17. By contrast, in the Czech republic, prices are expected higher to 12 from 9 along with Lithuania to 15 from 4. Two exceptions, the UK and Sweden, expect to maintain prices stable.

FRANCE’s Economic Sentiment indicator fell 1.8 points to 105.2 dragged down by increasing stocks climbing to 10 from 9 the previous month while expected orders in the next three months dived to 8 from 14. The Industrial Confidence Indicator thus dipped to nil from the previous month 3 (production expectation, assessment of order books, assessment of stocks of finished products) as domestic order books did not pick up as expected and slid to -1. Export order books climbed back to nil from -2 In the Euro area, the Economic Sentiment Indicator declined to 100.2

Out of the EU 27, the Economic Sentiment Indicator improved for Germany although modestly to 103.7 from 103.1 Hungary to 83.7 from 76.8 while Denmark recorded a strong fall to 94.3 from 98.6 along with Ireland to 87.4 from 93.9

FRANCE’s Stocks of finished products rose to 10 from 9 similarly to the Euro area (to 8 from 7) but remained stable in the EU 27 at 7. Denmark and Estonia recorded the highest stock increases respectively to 17 (from 5 in February) and to 16 (from 13)

Source: Eurostat

The production slow down observed in recent months remained on a downward trend, falling to 14 from 15 , while the Euro area’s rose to a modest 6 (from 5) , and stayed stable at 3 in the EU 27. Cyprus dived to -5 from 25 and the Czech Republic’s slid to 18 from 25. The strongest increases were recorded by Lithuania to 21 (from 0 Malta to 45 (from 12) Finland to 13 (from 1) and the UK’s surged to 15 (from 10).

Despite order books rescinding, France’s selling price expectations recorded a significant rise, to 14 from 10, unlike in the Euro area and the EU 27 where prices are expected to remain stable. Best performers, which include Finland and the Czech republic expect prices to fall drastically respectively to 17 (from 22) and to 9 (from 19) similarly in Germany to 13 (from 15)

With most indicators sliding to negative figures, especially Consumers record low confidence indicator, France’s Retail Trade Indicator stayed prudent, sliding to 2 from 4. By contrast , in each the Euro area and the EU 27, the Retail trade Indicator picked up to 1 from -3 The strongest increases were recorded by Italy to 31 (from 20) and Cyprus to 13 from 8. Germany’s picked up to -11 from -22. The hardest decreases involved Belgium to -12 from -7, and Greece to 7 from 17, although most EU 27 members also recorded significant dips as regards their retail trade sectors.

FRANCE’s Economic Sentiment indicator fell 1 point to 107 (from December revised figure at 107.9) despite a more optimistic Industrial Confidence indicator up to 3 from December 1 (production expectation, assessment of order books, assessment of stocks of finished products) as domestic order books were expected to pick up unlike export order books. In the Euro area, the Economic Sentiment Indicator declined to 103.2 from December 105.8 despite a stable Industrial Indicator.

Source: Eurostat

Out of the EU 27, the Economic Sentiment Indicator improved for seven member states (six member states in December) and included Finland, Slovakia, Poland, the Netherlands, Cyprus, Ireland and Bulgaria) Germany’s indicator dropped to 103.1 (from December 105.1) similarly to its Industrial Indicator down to 1 from a higher 4 last month. Out of the EU 27, nine member states showed a stronger Industrial indicator (compared with five member states in December) and included Bulgaria, Greece, Cyprus, Malta, the Netherlands, Romania, Slovenia, Finland and the UK.

Source: Eurostat

FRANCE’s domestic Order books picked up to a modest 1 point (from nil in December) while each the Euro area and the EU 27 fell to -1 (from nil each in December). Out of the EU 27, only Finland and the UK showed increased order books while East European member states recorded the most order books declines: Lithuania’s to -13 from -5 Latvia to -13 from -6. Out of the same area, only the Czech Republic maintained strong order books although down to 16 from 18.

Export order books recorded an inverted trend in France as they are expected to decline, similarly in the Euro area and the EU 27, to a negative -1 from 4 in December (in the Euro area to -1 from 1 and in the EU 27 to -2 from 1) unlike the Czech Republic, Ireland and the UK were orders are expected to increase. Stocks of finished products remained high in France up one point to 9 from 8 while they stayed stable at 7 in each the Euro area and the EU 27. In Finland, and the UK due to higher export order books stocks fell similarly to the Czech Republic and Ireland while they rose the most in Lithuania.

France’s Capacity Utilization in the manufacturing industry nevertheless stayed high, at 87.2 (87.6 last month in the last quarter) identical to Germany’s and well above the Euro area 83.8 and the EU 27 83.9. Most EU 27 member states maintained their capacity utilization unchanged and the production trend observed in recent months revealed a slow down throughout the Euro area and the EU 27: France’s indicator fell to 15 from 17 , the Euro area’s to 5 from 7, and the EU 27 to 3 from 4. Germany’s indicator declined to nil from 1. By contrast, Malta, Ireland, Latvia, Greece and Bulgaria observed stronger figures.

Source: Eurostat

France’s Retail Trade Confidence Indicator, upbeat last month, aligned with a grim consumer confidence sentiment, and consequently dipped to 4 from 9.In the Euro area, the indicator dropped to -3 from 2 and in the EU 27 to -3 from 1. The strongest increase was recorded by Slovakia to 26 from 19 while the strongest fall involved Ireland to -20 from -11 and the UK to -10 from nil.