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ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE INDICATOR - OCTOBER 2007

The Economic Sentiment Indicator stayed stable as order books rose and capacity utlisation in the manufacturing sector increased. However, Consumer Confidence dipped further, and each the Euro area and the EU 27 underperformed. 

FRANCE’s Economic Sentiment indicator stayed stable or +0.1% at 110.4 in October while the Euro area’s fell -1% to 105.9 impacted by most member states indicators’ dip including Germany’s -0.6% to 106.1 Only the Netherlands recorded a positive indicator trend +1% while Belgium’s indicator dived -2.8% as an internal political crisis, no government in place since June, in addition to divisions among Flemish and French speakers, has been shaking the country and worsening. Out of East European member states, Hungary’s Economic Sentiment Indicator collapsed -18% Slovenia’s fell -5.7% and Slovekia’s -5.2% 

FRANCE’s Industrial Sentiment Indicator, --production expectation, assessment of order books, assessment of stock of finished products -- improved to 1.3 points (from the previous month 0.7) as in past months, order books shifted from East European member states in favor of Western Europe. East European member states’ indicators deteriorated for the majority as a result : Estonia to 6 from 8, Latvia to 0.3 from 2.3 Lithuania to 2.7 from 4.7 Hungary to -6.4 from -2.4 Romania to 2.5 from 3.8 and Slovenia to 7.2 from 9.6 Slovekia, and the Czech Republic remained the exception with an Industrial Sentiment Indicator rising respectively to 13 from 11.9 and to 16 from 15.4 Bulgaria, which joined the Euro area in January, saw its indicator rise mildly to 12.3 from 11.6 

The Capacity Utilization indicator in the manufacturing industry corroborated this shift:FRANCE’s rose to 87.6 from the previous month 86.4 and the Euro area’s stayed stable at 84.2 and the EU 27 at 83.8 East European member states recorded a major slow down with Lithuania recording the lowest capacity utilization at 72.4 while the Czech Republic maintained high capacity at 89.6 but only slightly up from 88.9

 

By contrast, FRANCE’s Retail Trade Confidence Indicator -- present business situation, future situation and assessment of stocks-- dived in the red -1.4 to 1.4 the previous month, as skyrocketing oil prices affected consumers similarly to the Euro area’s -1.8 from a lower -3.1 The EU 27 indicator rose to 1.7 from 0.9 Only Bulgaria, Lithuania and Poland recorded positive trends.

The Consumer Confidence Indicator’s collapse in each Ireland and Slovakia, respectively -12.1 (from -5.2) and to -5.7 (from -1.2) impacted each the Euro area -6.1 and the EU 27-4.7 FRANCE’s fell to -6.7 from the previous month -5.1 as pessimism about personal finances and unemployment deepened in contrast with May and June, prior to the presidential elections.

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3last updated on March 13, 2008                                                                                                                                                      Hosted by AMEN.FR