JANUARY 2008
Economic Sentiment Indicator keeps declining as stocks of finished products remain high
FRANCE’s Economic Sentiment indicator fell 1 point to 107 (from December revised figure at 107.9) despite a more optimistic Industrial Confidence indicator up to 3 from December 1 (production expectation, assessment of order books, assessment of stocks of finished products) as domestic order books were expected to pick up unlike export order books. In the Euro area, the Economic Sentiment Indicator declined to 101.7 from December 103.4 despite a stable Industrial Indicator.
Out of the EU 27, the Economic Sentiment Indicator improved for seven member states (six member states in December) and included Finland, Slovakia, Poland, the Netherlands, Cyprus, Ireland and Bulgaria) Germany’s indicator dropped to 103.1 (from December 105.1) similarly to its Industrial Indicator down to 1 from a higher 4 last month. Out of the EU 27, nine member states showed a stronger Industrial indicator (compared with five member states in December) and included Bulgaria, Greece, Cyprus, Malta, the Netherlands, Romania, Slovenia, Finland and the UK.
FRANCE’s domestic Order books picked up to a modest 1 point (from nil in December) while each the Euro area and the EU 27 fell to -1 (from nil each in December). Out of the EU 27, only Finland and the UK showed increased order books while East European member states recorded the most order books declines: Lithuania’s to -13 from -5 Latvia to -13 from -6.
Out of the same area, only the Czech Republic maintained strong order books although down to 16 from 18.
Export order books recorded an inverted trend in France as they are expected to decline, similarly in the Euro area and the EU 27, to a negative -1 from 4 in December (in the Euro area to -2 from 1, and in the EU 27 to -1 from 1) unlike the Czech Republic, Ireland and the UK were orders are expected to increase. Stocks of finished products remained in high in France up one point to 9 from 8 while they stayed stable at 7 in each the Euro area and the EU 27. In Finland, and the UK due to higher export order books stocks fell similarly to the Czech Republic and Ireland while they rose the most in Lithuania. France’s Capacity Utilization in the manufacturing industry nevertheless stayed high, at 87.2 (87.6 last month in the last quarter) identical to Germany’s and well above the Euro area 83.9 and the EU 27 83.8. Most EU 27 member states maintained their capacity utilization unchanged and the production trend observed in recent months revealed a slow down throughout the Euro area and the EU 27: France’s indicator fell to 15 from 17 , the Euro area’s to 3 from 4 and the EU 27 to 5 from 7. Germany’s indicator declined to nil from 1. By contrast, Malta, Ireland, Latvia, Greece and Bulgaria observed stronger figures. France’s Retail Trade Confidence Indicator, upbeat last month, aligned with a grim consumer confidence sentiment, and consequently dipped to 4 from 9.In the Euro area, the indicator dropped to -3 from 1 and in the EU 27 to -3 from 2. The strongest increase was recorded by Slovakia to 26 from 19 while the strongest fall involved Ireland to -20 from -11 and the UK to -10 from nil.
FEBRUARY 2008
Economic Sentiment Indicator slides further as stocks increase while evolution of order books over the next three months tumbles
FRANCE’s Economic Sentiment indicator fell 1.8 points to 105.2 dragged down by increasing stocks climbing to 10 from 9 the previous month while expected orders in the three months dived to 8 from 14. The Industrial Confidence Indicator thus dipped to nil from the previous month 3 (production expectation, assessment of order books, assessment of stocks of finished products) as domestic order books did not pick up as expected and slid to -1. Export order books climbed back to nil from -2
In the Euro area, the Economic Sentiment Indicator declined to 100.1
Out of the EU 27, the Economic Sentiment Indicator improved for Germany although modestly to 103.7 from 103.1 Hungary to 83.7 from 76.8 while Denmark recorded a strong fall to 94.3 from 98.6 along with Ireland to 87.4 from 93.9
FRANCE’s Stocks of finished products rose to 10 from 9 similarly. Denmark and Estonia recorded the highest stock increases respectively to 17 (from 5 in February) and to 16 (from 13). The production slow down observed in recent months remained on a downward trend, falling to 14 from 15 , while the Euro area’s rose to a modest 6 (from 5) , and stayed stable at 3 in the EU 27. Cyprus dived to -5 from 25 and the Czech Republic’s slid to 18 from 25. The strongest increases were recorded by Lithuania to 21 (from 0 Malta to 45 (from 12) Finland to 13 (from 1) and the UK’s surged to 15 (from 10). Despite order books rescinding, France’s selling price expectations recorded a significant rise, to 14 from 10, unlike in the Euro area and the EU 27 where prices are expected to remain stable. Best performers, which include Finland and the Czech republic expect prices to fall drastically respectively to 17 (from 22) and to 9 (from 19) similarly in Germany to 13 (from 15). With most indicators sliding to negative figures, especially Consumers record low confidence indicator, France’s Retail Trade Indicator stayed prudent, sliding to 2 from 4. By contrast , in each the Euro area and the EU 27, the Retail trade Indicator picked up to 1 from -3 The strongest increases were recorded by Italy to 31 (from 20) and Cyprus to 13 from 8. Germany’s picked up to -11 from -22. The hardest decreases involved Belgium to -12 from -7, and Greece to 7 from 17, although most EU 27 members also recorded significant dips as regards their retail trade sectors.
