JANUARY 2009
Economic Sentiment Indicator worsens as new orders and export volume expectations dive to historical lows. Euro area’s similar
FRANCE’s Economic Sentiment Indicator worsened anew and declined one point to 74.4 from the previous month edging with a record low 72 observed during the recessionary period of 1993.
The Euro area’s ESI reached a new historical low at 68.9 points from the previous month impacted by ten member states out of a total 16: Belgium, Germany, Greece, Italy, Cyprus, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Slovenia, and Slovakia observed record low confidence. In the EU 27, which englobes the Euro area, a total 17 member states among which the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary and the UK performed similarly.
Each of the ESI sub indicators, Industrial Confidence, Services, Consumer, Construction and Retail counted a substantial number of member states affected by historical lows. France’s Industrial Confidence Indicator slid three points to -36, five points from -41 in 1993, while that index counted seven member states at historical lows including the Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Cyprus, Hungary and the Netherlands. The ongoing recession left no member state untouched as reflected by the Capacity Utilization in the manufacturing industry index: France’s dipped nearly six points compared with the previous quarter to a historical low of 78.1 points similarly to the Euro area’s at 75.2 (from 81.6 points) and the EU 27 at 74.9 points (from 80.9) reflecting thus record lows in Germany, Italy, Lithuania, Hungary, the Netherlands, Austria, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland, Sweden and the UK .
In that context, the quarterly estimated Number of Months’ Production Assured by Orders on Hand in the Manufacturing Industry indicator shrank to minimalist levels: France’s fell back to 3.2 months from the previous quarter already meager 3.7 months, the Euro area’s rescinded to 3 months from 3.4 months and the EU 27 to 3.1 months (from 3.6). Germany’s index reached its minimal value of 2.4 months similarly to Q4 1993 , along with Belgium at 2.8 months in Q3 2003, Greece at 3.4 months, Slovakia at 4.8 months, and Finland at 1.9 months. In addition, the quarterly New Orders in the Manufacturing Industry indicator arched over this dire environment: France’s dived to -45 points (from -21) a level similar to its historical low of Q3 1993. The Euro area’s plunged to -41 dragged down by all its member states observing historical lows and the EU 27 to -42 points due to 21 member states.
The Export Volume Expectations in the Manufacturing Industry indicator corroborated it all: France’s collapsed to -48 points from -27, its first historical low, and similarly in the Euro area at -29 points (from -13) and the EU 27 at -28 (from -13) where all member states, with the exception of Sweden and the UK, observed similar historical lows.
The Capacity Utilization by Industrial Branch indicator revealed that heavy players, impacted the most among all sectors, are likely to suffer further: in the Euro area, the motor vehicles-trailers and semi trailers group index reached a historical low of 66.7 points from the previous quarter at 81.7. The basic metals and metal products indicator collapsed to a minimal level by ten points each, non metallic mineral products performed equally poorly, along with textile, intermediate goods and consumer goods. With no exception, all sectors reached their first historical lows as regards export volume expectations by industrial branch.
Regarding Services, the confidence indicator nearly topped the list with 16 member states out of a total 27 at their worst including Spain, Belgium, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Portugal, Greece, Finland, Lithuania, Hungary, Italy, Austria, the Netherlands, Estonia, the UK and Slovakia. The Consumer Confidence Indicator recorded nine member states at historical lows, Bulgaria, Denmark, France, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, the Netherlands, Austria, and the UK.
The Construction index, impacted the least up to now totaled four countries at record low performances, Cyprus, Hungary, Portugal and Estonia while the Retail Confidence index fell below rock bottom in six member states including Greece, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, the UK and Estonia.
FEBRUARY 2009
Economic Sentiment Indicator deteriorates but Euro area’s and EU 27 dip to lowest levels since 1985
FRANCE’s Economic Sentiment Indicator deteriorated, down 0.8 points to 74.2 points, but to a much lesser extent than the Euro area’s and the EU 27, respectively to 61 points and 65.4 points, their lowest levels since 1985 when the indicator was launched. Out of the Euro area, 12 member states out of total 15 reached record lows, compared with 19 countries out of the EU 27: Germany’s ESI fell to 73.2 points, Spain’s to 67 points, Italy to 71.6 points, and the UK to 56.4 points from 60.2 the previous month. With the exception of Slovenia’s ESI nearly stable at 46.1 from 46.3, most east European member states ESI dipped on average ten points. As regards Nordic states, Sweden’s ESI remained stable, Finland’s dipped nearly two points, and Denmark’s reached a record low at 60.2 points.
Industrial confidence did not fare better: France fell to -38 from the previous month -36, a record low along with the Euro area’s at -37 points (from -33) and the EU 27 at -36 (from -33 as well) impacted by 19 member states at their lowest levels including the UK, Germany, Sweden, Finland, Slovakia, Slovenia, the Netherlands and Hungary.
Production expectations worsened, with 18 member states out of the EU 27 recording their lowest levels dragging the index to -11 points and in the Euro area to -37 points (from -38). France’s reached its lowest level -32 points, along with Germany to -42 points, Spain and Italy each to -25, and the UK to -51. Order books in such dire economic environment performed similarly down to a new record low -57 in each the Euro area and the EU 27. Stocks of finished products remained inflated at levels attained in the recessionary period of 1993, at 22 points in the Euro area, and at 20 points in the EU 27. France’s slightly improved to 22 points from the previous month 26, but in Sweden, stock levels reached a new record high at 42 points, along with stocks in the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Ireland, and Germany. Production trends stood in consequence at a new lowest level in the Euro area at -46 points, and at -47 in the EU 27impacted by 21 member states output gaps. France’s mirrored such trend, dipping to -45 points (from -39) along with Germany to -49, and the UK to -49 (from -31 points). Export order books reflected the global economic downturn, again recording lowest levels in the Euro area at -57 points (from -46 points the previous month) and the EU 27 at -58 (from -49) France’s nosedived 14 points to -71 and on average, many member states export order books tumbled ten points while the UK’s collapsed 21 points to -48 (from -27).
Employment expectations in the industrial sector kept weakening pushed down by ten member states at their lowest levels as reflected by the Euro area’s -37 points similar to 1993, a time of recession, and at -34 in the EU 27. In France the index fell three points to -43, in Germany to -32 and in the UK to -42. Pessimism even sent the index to abysmal levels in Sweden to -63 (from -48) in Slovakia to -57 (from -46) in Lithuania to -60 (from -49) and in the Czech Republic to -64 (from -54). Selling price expectations showed member states will, for the majority, to slash prices by half to sustain competition, since capacity utilizations, measured quarterly revealed new record lows industrial activities. In the Euro area capacity fell to 74.9 (from 81) in the EU 27 to 75 points, in France to 78.1 (from 78) in the Netherlands to 77.5 (from 82.9) and in Hungary to 74.8 (from 85.6) along with 12 other member states. By industrial branch, the index revealed that only one group , medical and optical instruments stayed above record lows capacity utilizations, but observed levels similar to the 1993 recessionary period. Export volumes per industrial branch, by contrast, recorded only lowest levels attained last month including consumer goods at -14 points, and intermediate goods at -31 points. The estimated number of months’ production for orders on hand averaged 2.4 to 3.1 months overall as in December and in January since exports volume expectations melt down similarly to the previous months.
MARCH 2009
Economic Sentiment Indicator records modest drop while Euro area’s remains at lowest level since 1985 for second consecutive month
FRANCE’s Economic Sentiment Indicator fell one point to 73.1 while the Euro area’s reached for the second consecutive month a historical low, at 60.3 points, since the index was launched in 1985. The Euro area performed similarly, at 64.6 points, dragged down by most member states’ record lows: Germany’s ESI dropped to 72.4, among other heavy weights Italy’s declined the strongest -4 points to 67.1 followed by Slovenia, Slovakia and Greece. Out of the EU 27, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Romania, , Sweden and the UK performed similarly. Spain’s ESI fell to 67.8 points but escaped the historical low line, while the Czech Republic and Belgium saw their respective ESI climb each two points respectively to 66.3 and to 68.1. A total 17 countries out of the EU 27 thus recorded record lows.
The Euro area’s and the EU 27 Industrial Confidence index stayed thus each in the red, at new historical lows, as 14 member states recorded their worst performances including Germany at -41 for the second consecutive month. Other member states included Belgium, Greece, Italy, Lithuania, Hungary, Malta, Austria, Poland, Finland, Sweden and the UK. France’s indicator fell 2 points to -39.
Production expectations in the Euro area worsened, to -32 points a record low, pushed down by 11 member states historical lows including the UK at -54 points, Romania at -16, Poland at -18, Spain at -30 and Italy at -28. France’s index declined 3 points to -28 and Germany’s down 1 point to -38.
Order books reflected the economic downturn, down to a record low -61 points in each the Euro area (-4 points) and the EU 27. France’s also observed a record low at -67 points (down 7 points) along with 12 member states among which Germany at -59 points (down 4 points) the UK at -63 points (down 4 points) the Netherlands at -40 points (-3) Italy at -68 points (-8 points) and the Czech Republic at -59 points (-12 points). The Stocks of finished products indicator slimmed for the majority and climbed one point in the Euro area at 21 points, while the EU 27 stabilized at 22 points. France’s remained unchanged at 21 points, Germany’s fell 1 point to 27, the UK’s rose to 32 points from the previous month 30,Slovakia increased to 20 points from 12 and Hungary’s decreased further to -10 points from -8. The Production trend in recent months indicator fell one point in the Euro area at -46 points although at a record low, while the EU 27 fell 1 point to -47. France’s stayed unchanged at -46 points and Germany’s worsened at -45 points down 4 points. A total 15 member states recorded historical lows among which the UK, at -54 points, Denmark at -44 points, Spain at -51 points, Italy at -60 points ad Belgium at -20 points.
The Export order books indicator brought no relief to the economic downturn, as 13 member states observed historical lows including France at -76 points (down 4 points) similarly to the Euro area’s at -63 points and the EU 27 at -60 points. Germany’s index fell 5 points to -57, and Italy’s to -68 points, down 6 points. Most east European member states observed similar negative trends. Employment expectations reached abysmal levels, at a new historical low in the EU 27 at -41 points unlike the Euro area, at -38 points. France’s dipped to -47, only three points from the recessionary year of 1993 at –50 points.
In this context, the Selling price expectations indicator kept diving, and reached a new historical low in the Euro area at –14 points and in the EU 27 at -13 points. France’s index fell 2 points to -13, Germany’s to -12 pints (down 2 points) Denmark’s to -15 points (from -10 points) the Netherlands to -13 points (from -10 points) and Lithuania’s to -43 points (from -20 points).
