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 EN FRANCAIS

KEY INDICATORS Q1 2008 : industrial output index france, industrial output euro area,order books index france -euro area - eu 27-,

household consumption of manufactured products,industrial producer prices france,euro area,eu 27, consumer prices index, inflation euro area, 

farm products prices index,raw materials prices index imported in france,company formations, external trade,turnover indices 

INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT INDEX - Q1 2008                          

INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT regained momentum and increased +0.6% in Q1 compared with the previous quarter as major industrial sectors maintained production above the red line, and, despite a general slow down affecting the Euro area. During the quarter and month on month, output stayed uneven: in January, production kept momentum and rose +0.5% pushed up by heavy weights rebounds: CONSUMER GOODS production rose +1.4% the AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY +1.8% and INTERMEDIATE GOODS +1.2% The FOOD and AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY recorded another output gap -1.7% CAPITAL GOODS production rose +0.8% as its component best of class, boats-planes-trains-motorcycles output fell -1.9% as a pause compared with the previous month hectic performance (+2.5%) CONSUMER GOODS output stayed quasi stable or +0.2% 

although leather and clothing production surged +2.5% book printing-reprints +2.3% and pharmaceuticals-perfumes +1%. Household equipment production increase +0.8% initiated a new production pause. Capital Goods electric-electronic components increased a strong +2.8% and similarly, Intermediate Goods electric-electronic components +2.6%. 

In February, production slowed down and grew a modest +0.3% impacted by the AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY new production pause -1.9% CAPITAL GOODS output rose +1.3% CONSUMER GOODS stayed quasi stable or +0.2% similarly to INTERMEDIATE GOODS. The FOOD and AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY output surged +0.4% Out of Capital Goods, all components production increased unlike the previous month: the boats-planes-trains-motorcycles output rebounded +1.7% mechanical equipment +1.1% and electric-electronic equipment +1.4% Intermediate Goods production by contrast strongly decreased with the exception of wood-paper-cardboard products +1.2% gain. The metal-metallic products production fell -0.3% and electric-electronic rose components +0.5% Consumer Goods leather-clothing production dipped -2.4% household equipment stayed nearly unchanged or -0.2% while pharmaceuticals-perfumes-personal care products production grew a mild +0.5%

Source: Insee

March recorded a substantial production gap, -0.8% mirroring most sectors order books: the FOOD and AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY output declined -0.6% CONSUMER GOODS -0.8% due to leather-clothing -3.3% along with household equipment -2.4% The AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY production dipped -2.9% and, for the second consecutive month while CAPITAL GOODS output slid -1.1% reflecting the electric-electronic components index -2.7% dip due in part to the Auto Industry. The boats-trains-planes-motorcycles production index stayed quasi stable. INTERMEDIATE GOODS output followed suit, -1.7% dragged down by the mineral products -2.8% output fall, the textile industry production decline -2.6% and chemicals- plastic-rubber -2.5%. Similarly, the metals and metallic products production dipped -1.4% and electric-electronic components -0.5%. Despite this slow down, the energy output index rose +2.4% as water-gas-electricity production increased +3.3%. The CONSTRUCTION index remained unchanged. Compared with the previous quarter, output stayed modest +0.3% as two sectors out of a total five underperformed : the Automobile Industry production index fell -0.3% and the Food and Agriculture Industry -0.5% Intermediate Goods output increased +0.5% Capital Goods +1.1% and Consumer Goods +0.5%

In the Euro area, INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT slowed down in March as well -0.2% (-0.1% in the EU 27) compared with the previous month  due to Capital Goods -1.1% dip and 

Durable Consumer Goods -1.5%. Non Durable Consumer Goods production also declined, -0.5% along with Intermediate Goods -0.2% FRANCE's industrial output within the

Union underperformed from February initiating a downward curve similarly to most European member states. 

Source: Eurostat

Per industrial sector, and in the Euro area, Energy output remained the exception and rose +2.7% Per country, Ireland’s +9.1% production rebound and the Netherlands’ +2.1% accounted for the only substantial production upward trends. Other production increases included Luxembourg +1.6% (provisional) and Finland’s +0.2% similarly to Germany’s Out of east European member states, Romania’s +0.7% output increase remained the exception. On the same period, the biggest output gaps were observed by Estonia -5.3% Slovakia -4.9% Lithuania -4.7% Poland -4.1% Latvia -3.6% and the Czech Republic -3.4%. Out of the WEU 27, Denmark’s output dipped -6.1% In one year to March, overall production rose +2% in the Euro area and +1.8% in the EU 27. Out of the industrial index component, best industrial performers included Energy production +5.8% and Capital Goods +4.1% Intermediate Goods rose +1.1% while Durable Consumer Goods output fell -3.2% and Non Durable Consumer Goods -0.9%. In the EU 27 production of Durable Consumer Goods declined -1.1% and Non Durable Consumer Goods -1% Out of the Euro area, Ireland +6.9% recorded the strongest output increase followed by the Netherlands +6.6% Germany +5.2% Finland +2.5% and Luxembourg +1.5% (estimate by member state). Best performers among east European member states included Romania’s +5.7% Poland +5.4% and Lithuania +3.9% while the strongest production declines involved Lithuania’s -4.5% and Estonia -4.9%

INDUSTRIAL ORDER BOOKS INDEX - Q1 2008                          

ORDER BOOKS increased +1.3% compared with the previous quarter and outperformed the Euro area’s modest +0.2% gain although France’s index remained below member states volume indices. On the same period in the EU 27, order books fell -1.9% due to a general slow down affecting drastically most member states. In January and in France, Industrial ORDER BOOKS increased +5.1% compared with the previous month pushed up by Investment goods +5% rebound (auto industry, mechanical equipments, electric and electronic equipments), Durable Consumer Goods +2.4% gain and Intermediate goods +2.2% Non durable Consumer goods order books only rose +0.6%. Out of Investment Goods , electric-electronic equipment order books jumped +14.5% Auto Industry order books rose +3.8% and mechanical equipments +4.6%

Source: Eurostat & Insee

Intermediate Goods electric and electronic components order books increased +4.2% and chemical products +2.2% Durable Consumer Goods household equipment saw order books rise +1.8% while pharmaceuticals-perfumes and personal care products order books remained unchanged. In March, France's ORDER BOOKS dived -6.8% and in the Euro area decreased much less drastically -1% In the EU 27 new orders fell -0.7% Excluding ships, railway and aerospace equipment, industrial new orders decreased -0.3% in the Euro area but rose +0.9% in the EU27. In the Euro area, textile and textile products recorded the strongest order books decline -3.6% followed by basic metals and fabricated metal products and, machinery and equipment where new orders fell each-1.3% New orders of chemicals and chemical products declined -0.4%. 

Source: Eurostat                

New orders of electrical and electronic equipment stayed quasi stable or +0.1% and transport equipment +0.5% In the EU 27 and inversely to the Euro area, new orders of textile and textile products rose +0.5% and basic metals and fabricated metal products new orders roses +1.6% Chemicals and chemical products new orders dipped -2% while machinery and equipment order books decreased slightly -0.2% electrical and electronic equipment new orders fell -0.5% and transport equipment -1.7%. In one year, new orders in FRANCE fell -3.2% and in the Euro area -2.5% compared with -1.3% in the EU 27. Textile and textile products order books performed nearly similarly in each area collapsing -14.5% and -13.6% Machinery and equipment order books in the EU 27 declined -1.9% but overperformed the Euro area’s -4.6% dip. New orders of basic metals and fabricated metal products fell each -2.7% while electric-electronic equipment saw orders drop -4.7% in the Euro area and -5.1% in the EU 27. On the same period, best country performers involved Bulgaria +20.8% Slovakia +9.3% Lithuania +8.6% and Spain +8.5% The biggest order books declines were observed in Greece -10.4% the Netherlands -9.1% and Sweden -8.8%

HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION OF MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS - Q1 2008                

HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION of manufactured products stayed sustained and grew +1% in Q1 to € 21 449bn compared with the previous quarter despite financial uncertainties brought about by inflationary prices observed worldwide and affecting daily consumer habits. 

Source: Insee

Per category, household consumption proved uneven as each car sales and household equipment recorded a rollercoaster pattern throughout the quarter. In January, sales of Durable Goods dipped -3.9% pushed down by car sales diving -8.7% Purchases of household equipment gained a modest +0.8% but sales of textile-leather products stayed on the increase and rose +2.3% Sales out of the commerce sector remained quasi stable or +0.2% and sales of other manufactured products declined -0.5%. The following month, Durable Goods rebounded with car sales increasing +7.5% Purchases of household equipment fell -0.1% and sales of textile-leather products remained on the increase +1% for the second consecutive month. Sales out of the commerce sector remained quasi stable or +0.2% and sales of other manufactured products declined -0.2%

Source: Insee

Year on year however, household consumption grew steadily. In one year to March, household consumption of manufactured products increased +1.2% impacted by sales of Durables Consumer Goods +8% gain as car sales increased +8.7% and household equipment +7.9% Sales of textile-leather fell -6.9% while sales of other manufactured products remained stable or +0.1%

PRODUCER PRICES INDEX - Q1 2008             

CONSUMER PRICES INDEX FRANCE AND DOM TOM - Q1 2008             

INFLATION EURO AREA and EU 27            

The EURO AREA annual INFLATION in MARCH rose to 3.8% similarly to the EU 27 from the previous month 3.3% and recorded another high compared with 1.9% a year ago. Monthly inflation stood at +1% 

EU 27 annual inflation last year stood at 2.1%. In March, the highest inflation rates involved Latvia 16.6% Bulgaria 13.2% and Lithuania 11.4%. The lowest rates were observed by the Netherlands 1.9% the UK 2.5% and Portugal 3.1% According to Eurostat, France’s inflation rate stood at 3.5% including DOM TOM compared with 3.2% according to Insee. In the Euro area, the main components with the highest annual rates remained for the six consecutive month education +9.6%, food +6.2% and transport +5.6% The highest monthly rates were recorded by clothing +7.2% and transport +1.3% and the lowest rate involved health -0.1%

FARM PRODUCTS PRICES INDEX - Q1 2008

FARM PRODUCTS PRODUCER prices stayed stable in January or +0.1% but jumped +19.2% in one year . The highest increases in twelve months were recorded by soft wheat +69.3% (+58.6% in October last year) and oil seeds +73.9% (+54.4%) while the cereals prices index rose at a milder rate +62.1% (+61% last October) by comparison. The barley price  index rose +57.6% (+76.7% last October). On the same yearly period, the strongest farm producer price index cut was recorded by potatoes -31.5% (-3.4% in January compared with December of last year) as wholesale prices dived -23.7% and stayed stable in one month. By March, the index rose a steep +0.8% and remained on the increase in one year +22.1%. 

Source: Insee

Compared with the previous month, the strongest price index cuts involved barley -1.6%, wines -3.9%, bovines -3.8% veal -2.7% and eggs -8.2% On the same period, the wholesale farm products prices index saw fruit prices decline -1.5% due to strawberries -20.3% unlike vegetables +11.5% impacted by tomatoes +22.5%. The meat price index gained +3.7% as the prices index for pork and sheep grew respectively +9.1% and +11.8% In one year, and out of farm products prices, the strongest increases were recorded by vegetable products +32.8% with the oil seeds price index soaring +107.5% and soft wheat +80.7% The potatoes price index collapsed -36%. The food and vegetables price index fell -0.4% due to vegetables -4.2% while the fruit index rose +5.3% Out of animal products, the milk price index gained +36.7% eggs +11.2% chicken +20.5% and turkey +31% The wholesale prices index rose +2.9% impacted by meats +10.2% fruits +4.8% eggs and dairy +12.9% with the butter prices index increasing +21.2%. The most substantial index component price cut was observed by the vegetables price index -7.3% decline due to potatoes -22.6% and tomatoes -16%

RAW MATERIALS PRICES INDEX - Q1 2008

RAW MATERIALS PRICES IMPORTED in FRANCE jumped +6.9% in Euro and +11.7% in currency compared with the previous quarter. Month on month however, the index recorded steeper increases and from the beginning of the quarter: expressed in currency, the overall index rose +5.8% in January compared with a tamer +3.9% in Euro due to a weak exchange rate rendering cost higher in dollar terms. That same month, crude oil prices per barrel remained quasi stable averaging USD 92.1 and Euro 62.1. The highest component price increase involved steel minerals +65% in currency and +63% in Euro. In February, the overall index increased +7.4% in Euro rebounding from the previous month downward trend impacted upwards by the foodstuff prices index +11.4% gain while mineral products prices rose a modest +6.4% by comparison. London Brent crude oil prices rose +3% and heating oil +4.4% Out of the foodstuff component, the tropical food price index rose +13.6% cereals +6.7% and sugar +12.4% Expressed in currency, prices mirrored these trends including brent and heating oil prices. Similarly and as regards industrial products, the strongest increase was recorded by precious metals +11.3%  expressed each in Euro and in currency, while the strongest price decline involved coniferous trees sawn timbers -8.6% in Euro and -8.4% in currency. In March, the overall index declined -1.8% in Euro rescinding from the previous month as each industrial and food products prices declined respectively -0.9% and -3.9% pushed down by most products prices downward trend due to a strong Euro. Crude oil per barrel increased +3.4% and heating oil +8% while in currency, prices rose nearly by half, respectively +8.7% and +13.4%  

Source: Insee

Source: Insee

In Euro and out of the Food products category, tropical food products prices index fell -3.6% cereals -2.3% and sugar -6.8% Industrial products prices followed a similar downward trend: natural textile fibers prices fell -0.2% natural rubber -5.3% leather -0.8% and coniferous trees sawn timbers -6.1%. Minerals recorded the only price increase out of that category +7.3% while precious metals prices stayed quasi stable or +0.2% On the same period and in currency, prices performed inversely: food prices rose +0.5% with cereals prices increasing +2.9% and tropical food +1.6%. Sugar prices fell -1.9% Overall, industrial products prices rose +4.3% impacted by natural textile fibers prices +4.7% gain, leather +4.3% although natural rubber -1.4% price cut and coniferous trees sawn timbers -1.2% offset that category overall. Minerals prices rose +5.4% similarly to precious metals. In one year to the end of the quarter and in Euro, imported raw material prices rose +8% but soared +26% in currency with oil seeds prices skyrocketing respectively +86% and +113% Crude oil per barrel rose +42.5% in Euro and +67% in currency while heating oil prices jumped +78.6% in currency and +52.4% in Euro. Out of the Euro index, food products prices soared +49% tropical food products +20.1% and cereals +21.8% while sugar by comparison only rose +5.9% Industrial products overall saw prices rise +3.6% due to two major price declines -- leather -26.2% and coniferous trees sawn timbers -23.6% Minerals prices fell -2.7% while precious metals prices increased +29.4% In currency and due to a weak dollar, precious metals prices jumped +58% and minerals +14.3%. Industrial products prices rose +13% as natural rubber prices increased +15.4% natural textile fibbers +29.1% while leather prices fell -13.5% and coniferous trees sawn timbers -10.4% Food products recorded by comparison alarming inflationary trends soaring overall +72% with each tropical food products and cereals prices increasing twofold compared with Euro prices. Sugar prices jumped +24.2%

COMPANY FORMATIONS - Q1 2008

COMPANY FORMATIONS increased +8.7% (in gross figures) compared with the previous quarter impacted by services to companies, commerce and construction. The quarter nevertheless started in a downward trend as company creations remained unchanged although negatively -0.1% in January: 28 885 businesses were created compared with the previous month, but the strongest company formations involved Services to Individuals +7.6% Construction and Intermediate Goods +4.7% each.

Source: Insee

February saw company formations surge: creations rebounded +2.6% to 29 595 new businesses and a cumulative 330 703 new companies (in gross figures) were created in one year. The strongest company creations were recorded by Capital Goods +14.6% , and Intermediate Goods +8.9% . The Food and Agriculture Industry new companies rebounded +6.6% Commerce +5% and Real Estate +4.2% Out of the Services to Individual group where new formations rose a modest +0.6% as a pause due to hectic creations in January, formations of Hotels, cafés and restaurants jumped +12.8% The Education-Health-Social Services sector saw new businesses increase +2.7% The Services to Companies sector did not perform as well and new entities fell -2.1% similarly to Construction while Transports recorded -5.8% company formations decline. The Consumer Goods new companies remained stable. In March, company creations dipped -2.4% compared with the previous month to 27 780 new businesses and to a cumulative 329 097 formations (in gross figures) in one year, due to a mechanical downward trend as new company categories impacted overall results negatively in addition to revised figures for each January and February. The Food and Agriculture industry new businesses dived -26.1% Capital Goods -9.2% and Services to Individuals -8.3% with hotels-cafés and restaurants formations declining -6.7% Intermediate Goods new businesses fell -1%, Construction -6% and Commerce -4% . Real Estate recorded the smallest company creations decline -0.9% while Consumer Goods +3.4% and Education-Health-Social Services +3.1% observed the only sectorial formation increases. In one year to March, four sectors recorded the largest company formations (in gross figures): Commerce saw a cumulative 79 992 formations, Services to Companies 70 472 Construction 56 791 and Services to Individuals 44 371

EXTERNAL TRADE - Q1  2008              

The trade gap widened to €-11bn in Q1/08 but exports rebounded +4.2% according to figures published by the Department of Economic and Statistical Studies. Exports out of the food and agriculture sector increased +7% pushed up by strong sales of agricultural products +8.8% and to a lesser extent food and agriculture industry products +6.1% Exports of Consumer Goods products rose +4.4% , Capital Goods +5.6%, Intermediate Goods +2.3% and exports out of the Automobile Industry grew +1.8% Energy exports jumped +23.7% on the same period allowing to save € 250mn on the energy bill (extra cost of € 2.2bn the previous quarter) totaling nevertheless €13.9bn. Regarding imports, energy products rose +7.4% the food and agriculture products +6.1% Per region, exports to the EU increased a strong +5.1% due to sales to Germany +7.4% (lead export partner) and Belgium +7.1% unlike Spain where exports fell -0.7% as well as Ireland -0.5% Exports to the Middle and Near East jumped +18.5% due to sales of Airbus aircrafts as well as refined petroleum products (for engines) Sales to Asia rose +4.1% and to Africa +3.2%% Imports grew the fastest from the EU +3.8% with the exception of the UK -1.4% and rose substantially from Africa +11.4% due to energy imports. Imports from Asia increased +1.8% and remained stable from the US +0.4%

TURNOVER INDICES - Q1  2008              

Source: Insee

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