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 EN FRANCAIS

KEY INDICATORS Q4 2004 : industrial output index, the labor market, company creations, car registrations, industry output prices index, french industry output prices index for the french market vat excluded , consumer prices index - metropole, average retail consumer prices, euro - metropole, french industry output prices index - imports -, monthly international prices index - imported raw materials,  external Trade 

The AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY output index climbed a strong +4.8% in Q4 but did not succeed in maintaining the overall index upwards. The INTERMEDIATE GOODS output index stayed stable while CAPITAL GOODS grew +0.6% confirming thus a major slow down in industrial activities despite a noticeable upsurge in the last two months of the year. October saw all output indices dip and led by the automobile industry’s -3.6% (against September +3.2% surge). Consumer goods’ fell -2.2% capital goods’ -0.4% and energy -0.5%

In one year, the overall output index grew +2.1% with the consumer goods and the automobile industry production indices climbing respectively +2.8% and +8.5% The intermediate goods production index rose +1.8% similarly to capital goods' . Out of CONSUMER GOODS , items related to home comfort recorded spectacular output increases : the photography-optical-watch making output index jumped +24.6% reception and transmission video material and equipment rose +12.5% household equipment +6.2% furniture +3% and household appliances to a lesser extent +2.5% The book printing and reprints output grew +1.3% and the pharmaceuticals output index +4.3% By contrast , and due to the increasing number of clothing manufactured abroad, the clothing-leather and fur output recorded another output gap falling -4.6 %

The INTERMEDIATE GOODS sector saw the ceramics goods output index grow +1.5% but the glass output index fell -3% along with the textile output stronger -6.6% drop. The paper-wood pulp and cardboard output index grew +6.8% unlike the paper-cardboard goods production shedding -2.9% and woodworks products -1.3% The plastic goods output index climbed +4.9% and the parachemicals output index +1.8% . Out of metals, the steel transformation output index climbed +5.3% along with metal products +8.8%

The CAPITAL GOODS output index saw a strong upsurge in shipbuilding output, +4.6% and space-airplane equipment output rose +3.6% along with the motorcycles and transport equipment +7% surge. The smelting works output index climbed +4.4% while the farming machinery output index grew a slight +0.8% The rolling railway equipment output index collapsed -16.10% Out of electronic equipments, the sound-video material and goods output index rose a strong +16.1% while inversely, the computers and office equipment output index dived -14.4%

Source: Insee

The ENERGY output index remained quasi stable to +0.2% as all combustibles and fuel products outputs seesawed all year long : coal and lignite outputs fell to zero from April, the natural hydro-fuel output dipped -10.6% and the cokes and radioactive products output collapsed -20.24% The refined oil products output declined -2.6% but the utilities output index (water-gas-and electricity) grew +2.1% with noticeable peaks in the last two months due to both the automobile and the capital goods sectors. The CONSTRUCTION output index fell -0.2% as the building works output index declined -0.6% while the civil engineering production climbed +1%

Unemployment remained stable in Q4 rising +0.1% to a total 2 694 000 million jobless against the previous quarter but grew to 9.9% of the total population unemployed. The under 25 recorded the strongest jobless rate increase of all age groups and rose +0.7 % or a total 587 000 unemployed. The 50+ age group saw unemployment stay quasi unchanged at + 0.2% or 451 000 jobless while the 25 to 49 jobless rate stagnated at 1 656 000 unemployed.

In one year to December, unemployment fell -0.5 % to 2 693 000 jobless from 2 707 000 a year earlier . The under 25 jobless rate kept rising +1.9 % to 589 000 unemployed from 578 000 while both the 25 to 49 and the 50+ jobless rates fell respectively -0.8 % (to 1 654 000 jobless from 1 668 000) and -2.4 % (to 450 000 unemployed from 461 000).

Per gender and in Q4 , male unemployment increased +0.2% while female unemployment remained stable. Males under 25 recorded the highest unemployment rate increase +1% to a total 317 000 jobless while both the 25 to 49 age group and the 50+ unemployment rates fell respectively -0.1% to 767 000 jobless and -0.4% to 225 000 jobless.

In one year and per gender, female unemployment fell -0.7% to a total 1 383 000 jobless from 1 393 000 due to temporary employment while male’s fell -0.3% to 1 310 000 unemployed from 1 314 000  The 50+ male age group recorded the strongest unemployment rate decline, -3.9 % to 225 000 jobless from 234 000 By contrast, the male under 25 category was impacted the most by unemployment jumping +3% to a total 318 000 jobless from 309 000. The intermediate age group, males between 25 to 49, recorded a jobless rate drop -0.7% to 766 000 jobless from 771 000 Within the same age group, females recorded a higher unemployment rate decline -1.1% to a total 887 000 jobless from 897 000 while the 50+ jobless rate fell -0.9% to 225 000 unemployed from 227 000 The under 25 age group jobless rate grew +0.7% to a total 271 000 jobless from 269 000

The labor market remained sluggish in Q4 although overall job offers grew +3.3% to 261 800 offers against the previous quarter but, all job offer categories plummeted, led by long term offers (over six months) collapsing -31.6% to 94 600 against the previous 136 300 Temporary job offers (under six months) kept declining -16.9% to 89 400 offers and occasional offers fell -18.1% to a total 41 600 offers.

In one year, overall job offers grew +8% to a total 265 700 against 246 000 a year earlier but only temporary employment nearly mirrored this upward trend climbing +7.1% to a total 76 836 offers from 71 713 Long term offers only grew +3.5% to 86 120 offers from 83 241 and occasional job offers rose +3.1% to 40 245 offers from 39 045

COMPANY CREATIONS - FRANCE AND DEPARTMENTS - Q4 2004                                                         

Source: Insee 

Company creations kept declining to an all time low in Q4 dipping -1.2% against the previous quarter with both new companies -1.6% and reactivations -1.1% negative rates underlining cautious entrepreneurial projects as only buy backs rose +1.5%

Six B2C related sectors recorded strong increases in Q4 unlike industrial sectors (excluding the food and agriculture industry) falling -3.9% to 1198 from 1246: the capital goods sector company creation rate plunged -10.6% to 229 from 256 and the intermediate goods group saw company creations decrease -11% By contrast and out of non industrial sectors, the services to individuals category rebounded +3% from previous quarters and recorded the fastest company creation growth rate to 4 867 from 4712 an upsurge from previous quarters. New businesses in the commerce sector rose +2.7% to 616 from 600 as manufactured products met strong demand in both local and export markets.

Both construction and real estate benefited from a lasting housing shortage and company creations grew respectively +1.8% to 4 241 from 4166 and +0.4% to 1 081 from 1077 Education-health services and social services new companies rose +0.6% to 1890 from 1879 while the food and agriculture industry’s remained quasi stable at +0.2 % to 611 from 610 The services to companies new businesses declined -3.7% to 4889 from 5075 as most enterprises froze expenses discouraging thus company creations in that sector. With oil prices soaring +16% in Q4 to Euro 34 per barrel from Euro 29.4 company creations in the transport sector fell -3.6% to 544 creations from 564 while new set ups in the commerce category started to run out of steam and rose -0.1% to 7057 from 7061 following record company creation rates in both Q1 and Q2.

Source: Insee 

In one year to December, only four sectors out of a total 12 recorded company creation increases : construction saw company set up rise +9.6% to 4377 from 3995 followed by the food and agriculture industry's +7.4% to 596 from 555 and real estate +7.3% increase to 1089 from 1015. The consumer goods sector recorded a mild +0.3% rise to 617 from 615

The industrial sector’s new companies (excluding the food and agriculture industry) fell -6.3% to 1172 from 1251 as company creations in the intermediate goods sector collapsed -22% to 273 from 348 The capital goods group did not fare better, with creations declining -7.8% to 224 from 243 impacted by a sluggish demand and a strong Euro. New companies out of the transport sector fell -13.2% to 564 from 650 as oil prices had soared +43% (crude oil per barrel climbed U$D 39.8 from U$D 29.8) The service to companies category declined -6.2 % to 4527 from 5099 as businesses focused on minimal investment. New set ups in the commerce sector fell-3 % to 7075 from 7295 while the services to individuals category new businesses decreased -1.1 % to 4901 from 4957 as the hotels-cafés-and restaurants group creations had slid -3.4%

Source: Insee  

Foreign new car registrations jumped +21% in Q4 leading French and second hand car registrations by 1% unlike the previous quarter when all registrations had collapsed to negative figures. Diesel engine car registrations jumped +22% but gas engine cars edged a close +19%

In one year to December, the Foreign car registrations market share climbed +20% to 77 800 units from 71 900 while French car registrations grew +6% to 94 000 from 88 600 units. Second hand car registrations increased +6% to 447 100 units from 422 300 units nearly matching new cars +7% growth rate to 171 800 units from 160 500 with peak periods in March and June when bonuses and pay increases are usually allocated. Diesel car registrations climbed +8% to 119 900 units from 110 600 while gas engine cars registrations rose by half to a total 51 500 units from 49 400

With oil prices increasing +12.3% in March, diesel engine car registrations climbed +27.4% to 133 500 units from 104 800 that same month (in anticipation of increased purchasing power ) but gas engine cars registrations rose higher +27.8% to 63 900 from 50 000 The June oil price decline -8.3% left new buyers similarly unaffected as gas engine car registrations rose +33% (to 69 000 units from 51 900) compared with diesel engine car registrations +26.5% (to 148 500 units from 117 400 ) Soaring oil prices to a record U$D 55.40 per barrel in October temporarily inverted this trend as diesel car registrations climbed +5% the following month but declined -3.5% in December , similarly to oil prices. Gas engine car registrations stabilized throughout to 51 000 units sold.

Very few producers prices index rose in Q4 with the exception of private cars +0.5% farming machinery +1.4% and household appliances +0.9 % as internal demand remained sluggish and foreign order books nearly empty. Despite soaring oil prices, the new tires output price index only grew slightly +0.6% but the agrochemical products declined -1.4% Among manufactured goods, the few items recording demand underwent strong price index cuts : the optical and photo equipment output price index fell -0.9% and computers a stronger -1.8% Non ferrous metals saw the lead output price index rise +3% while the copper output price index remained stable.

In one year, the non ferrous metals output prices index soared, mirroring supply and demand on international exchanges : the lead output price index grew +23.4% while trading prices jumped +42% on to U$D/t 937.7 from U$D/t 689.7 The copper output price index rose +23.9% but traded +43.4% higher to U$D/t 3148.3 from U$D/t 2195.3 On the same period, the imported raw materials non ferrous metals prices index rose +13% in Euro, but increased +23.5% in U$D 

The tobacco output price index climbed +8.9%

A strong Euro allowed for lesser priced imported goods to be re-sold on the French market but some exceptions remained: the new tires output price index rose +0.7% and the private cars output price index +0.5% Inversely, the agrochemicals price index declined -0.9% The consumer goods output prices index declined further with the household appliances price index shedding - 1.3% computers -9% and optical and photo equipment -3.7%

FRENCH INDUSTRY OUTPUT PRICES INDEX FOR THE FRENCH MARKET VAT EXCLUDED - Q4 2004 

The overall output prices index grew +0.5% in Q4 despite the energy output price index +2.6% increase and intermediate goods +1% On the same period, energy products for business use and apartment buildings (excluding water) rose +3.6% Out of the intermediate goods category, items including chemical products, rubber and plastic saw their price indices rise at a faster rate than metal products respectively +2.6% and +1% The organic chemicals output price index soared +7.3% similarly to the artificial or synthetic fiber output price index.

Categories that contributed in maintaining the overall index subdued included the food and agriculture industry output price index dipping -1.4% The consumer goods output price index remained unchanged while the automobile industry output price index remained quasi stable rising a slight +0.2% and, in spite of increasing metal and plastic prices.

The capital goods output price index also stabilized due the sound-video equipment -2% price cut although the farming machinery output price index jumped +8.7%

In one year to December, the overall output price index rose a strong +3.1% impacted upwards by intermediate goods +4.5% and energy +9.2% On the same period, all metal products output prices index skyrocketed : the steel transformation output price index soared +23.6% non ferrous metals rose +8.5% metallic products +5.2% and smelting work products +2.6%

The consumer goods output price index remained stable so as to avoid worsening a sluggish internal demand. The food and agriculture industry kept prices unchanged by expanding their own generic products market share via lesser priced products favored increasingly by consumers. The automobile industry output price index rose +0.6% and capital goods a mild +0.7% although the farming machinery output price index had risen +5.7% The sound and video equipment -6.3% price index cut balanced out that increase.

The overall consumer prices index grew +0.5% in Q4 impacted by major increases : the manufactured products price index rose +4.5% despite mostly stable producer prices and energy climbed +3.8% as petroleum products reached new records in October to U$D/barrel 50.52 and U$D/barrel 51.56 The December decline under U$D/barrel 40.00 nevertheless managed to soften such inflationary trends. The fresh produce consumer price index increased +2.9% as domestic fuel, utilized by farmers’ farming machinery, saw prices soar +19% in October to U$D/t 484.00 against the previous month. Other price index increases included essential necessities: the rent-water-domestic garbage retrieval consumer price index grew +1.2% and health care services +0.4% The transport and communication price index shed -1.6 %

Among the consumer prices index, the other food products cut, a disappointing -0.6% did not meet the Finance Minister’s demand the previous quarter for food prices to decline by -2% 

In one year, the overall consumer prices index climbed +2% impacted upwards by four major increases : the energy price index rose + 11.1% with the oil products price index soaring +16.6% (+19.2% to October excluding the December oil price decline). The tobacco price index increased +9.5% and the rent-water and domestic garbage retrieval price index +3.5%

Price cuts remained mild overall : the clothing and shoes price index fell -0.7% and seesawed despite international imported raw material prices (leather) declining in April, October, November and December. The other manufactured products price index declined -0.1% health care products -0.8% and the fresh produce price index -0.7% impacted downwards by the previous quarter price index cuts.

The price of bread increased +0.7% in Q4 as electricity for professional use grew on the same period along with the price of breadmaking flour from February through August. Domestic fuel prices skyrocketed +13.7% mirroring oil prices record high. Mineral water retail price fell -2.7% as fierce competition among bottled water suppliers overtook a lucrative market similarly with beer -1.1% cut. The price of water supply grew +0.2% 

In one year, domestic fuel prices soared to a record +30.1% , water supply grew +2.8% while both mineral water and beer prices fell respectively -1.7% and -1.4%

Meat products recorded mild increases in Q4 compared with the previous quarter with the exception of hamburger climbing +2.6%. Steak retail price grew +0.5% and veal scallops +0.6% while ham fell -1.2% In one year however, all products retail prices jumped led by hamburger +9.2% steak +3.7% and veal scallops +4.4%. Ham retail price stayed unchanged. 

Despite increasing oil prices, fish products recorded mild price increases in Q4 : fresh hake retail price grew +1.4% and trout +0.4% while both salmon and fresh cod filet fell respectively -5.7% and -3.8% In one year and as a direct result of oil price increases, all fish products retail consumer prices climbed : fresh cod filet jumped +8.4% (also impacted by reduced supply against growing demand) fresh hake grew +2.8% and trout +4.2%. Salmon retail price +0.4% increase  rose the least. 

Dairy and oil products consumer retail prices kept declining in Q4 : whole pasteurized milk retail price fell -0.1% Camembert cheese -0.6% butter -0.7% and sunflower oil -2.9% unlike extra virgin olive oil retail price +2.3% increase. In one year, all products retail prices fell, with the exception of olive oil retail price rising +1.4% Whole pasteurized milk retail price declined -1.9%, Camembert cheese -1.2% and sunflower oil -5.2%. Butter retail consumer price remained stable.

Heating cost in Q4 impacted upwards most fresh produce retail prices but the price of lettuce soared +27% as weather conditions saw production decline despite low consumer demand and an increasing inclination to purchase packaged lettuce. By contrast, carrots retail price fell a strong -6.1% and fresh fruit recorded drastic price cuts : pears dipped -15.5% and apples -4.7% as a direct result of increased imports from Eastern Europe leading French farmers to express worries against unfair competition due to extremely low wages in that region. Oranges retail price grew a slight +0.6% and sugar retail price fell -1.4% In one year lettuce retail price grew +12% while most fruit and vegetables prices declined : carrots retail price fell a strong -23.7% oranges -0.6% pears -15.5% apples -4.7%. Sugar retail consumer price grew a slight +0.7%

The imports price index recorded minor increases in Q4 with goods and services climbing +0.8% along with farming machinery as the Euro allowed for prices to remain subdued. The coal import price index fell -0.4% following month on month increases. The abrasive products price index declined a slight -0.5% while the photography and optical equipment import price index fell the strongest -1.2%

In one year however, three items recorded strong increases led by the coal import price index jumping +29.1% due to coal mines shut down and increasing imports in volume. The tobacco import price index (including French taxes) climbed +8.6% as taxes totaling 70% out of a pack of cigarettes kept increasing and impacted sales downwards. The photography and optical equipment price index climbed +8.2% and farming machinery +2.4% Abrasive products grew a slight +0.9% while the soaps and detergents import price index rose +1.9% mirroring chemical products price increases.

MONTHLY INTERNATIONAL PRICES INDEX : IMPORTED RAW MATERIALS - Q4 2004       

In €uro and in Q4 the overall monthly international imported raw materials prices index fell -4.1% and the sugar price index +4.1% gain recorded the only major index increase. Foodstuff declined -6.3% aided by both a strong Euro and other food products price index cuts (cereals, oil seeds and tropical foods) impacting downwards potential inflationary trends. In Q4 the Euro traded at an average €1.28 against the dollar (USD) compared with an average €1.22 the previous quarter or a +3.2% increase Industrial products prices declined -3.2% alleviated again by a strong Euro, but only non ferrous metals recorded a slight +0.7% increase despite a peak in October at 102.3 All other products prices declined : the leather price index fell the hardest -10.6% with a record low 66.1 price index in December from November 71.4 shedding -7.4% in just one month. The wood pulp price index declined -1.2% falling thus back to Q1 prices as new paper stocks  kept increasing due to recycling weakening demand. The natural rubber price index dropped -0.9% 

In one year the overall index grew +1.7% dragged upwards by two items: the non ferrous metals prices index jumped +13.1% and the sugar price index soared +27.1% Nevertheless, the foodstuff price index declined -10.8% but the industrial products price index climbed +7.7% despite major price index cuts: the natural rubber price index dipped -9.5% leather -17.2% and wood pulp -2.2% The last month of the year saw the €uro trade at a monthly average 1.30 against the dollar or 7% higher compared with the previous year’s €1.22 and on the same period.

The cost rise in currency widened when compared with the Euro prices index and in Q4 the overall currency index grew +1.6% impacted by a weak dollar. Nevertheless, in Q4 the overall prices index expressed in currency traded at 27.9% change against the Euro prices index compared with Q1 34% change. Only three items recorded a price index cut : the foodstuff price index fell -0.9% the leather price index declined -5.3% with a record low at 96.4 in December and the wood pulp price index -6.5%  Major price index increases were recorded by sugar +10.3% gain and natural rubber +4.9% The non ferrous metals price index climbed +6.7% as it had soared from October and to year end sending thus the industrial products index to rise +2.5%

In one year, the overall index climbed +10.3% impacted by demand : the industrial products price index jumped +17% to 132.5 from 113.3 as the non ferrous metals price index soared +23.4% along with the wood pulp price index +6.6% increase. The sugar price index jumped +38.6% Inversely, the foodstuff price index declined -3.7% aided by other food products prices index cut (among which oil seeds, tropical foods, and cereals). Out of industrial products, with the exception of non ferrous metals, prices fell : the natural rubber price index declined -1.4% and leather -9.7% to a record low 96.4 from 106.8

EXTERNAL TRADE- FRANCE & DEPARTMENTS Q4 - 2004                                                           

The trade gap widened to a record Euro -7.765bn with the deficit settling from Q2 as a strong Euro penalized exports and reinforced fierce competition from non Euro markets : imports totaled Euro 380235bn against exports Euro 334290bn While imports recorded some decline in February, March, November and December, exports fell in February, April and May and thus failed to offset soaring oil and imported raw materials prices. The AUTOMOBILE sector remained strong with exports rising regularly despite fierce competition and non ferrous metals prices regular increases.

CONSUMER GOODS imports outpaced exports and an increasing number of durable goods originating from emerging markets widened thus this sector’s commercial trade gap. CAPITAL GOODS exports fared well despite regular metals price increases while INTERMEDIATE GOODS did not succeed in reducing its commercial deficit due to a strong Euro in sectors where emerging markets offer competitive prices (glass, ceramics, chemistry, metal, and steel transformation)

ENERGY imports far outpaced exports as soaring oil prices over inflated the energy bill paid in currency. The fisheries-agriculture exports remained in the black despite declines recorded in May, June, October and November as oil prices impacted upward all sea foods and fish products .

The FOOD & AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY exports remained strong despite substantial declines in May, July, August, October and November when oil prices reached record high and impacted therefore transport costs.

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