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 EN FRANCAIS

KEY INDICATORS Q1 2005  Industrial output index, the labor market -metropole- company creations, job offers, french industry output prices index vat excluded for the french market, industry prices index -imports, industry prices indeximported goods re-sold on the french market, consumer prices index - metropole- international imported raw materials  

The industrial output index fell -0.6% in Q1 with most sectors recording substantial output gaps from February as order books had dipped -0.3% while stock levels remained unusually high : the AUTOMOBILE and INTERMEDIATE GOODS OUTPUTS ended the quarter on a negative trend falling each -1.5% CAPITAL GOODS’ declined -0.6% CONSTRUCTION’s -0.7% and the FOOD & AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY‘s -0.8% two sectors severely affected by cold temperatures forcing activities to a stand still. The ENERGY sector inversely benefited from cold weather temperatures and output grew +1% while the CONSUMER GOODS' output grew a slight +0.4% In February and according to Eurostat, the strongest industrial output was recorded by Estonia +5.2% followed by Letonia +2.2% the Netherlands + 4.7% and Portugal +3.5% while inversely industrial output fell in Ireland -0.9% Denmark -1.7% Belgium -1.5% and Germany -1.4% Industrial output prices recorded however the strongest increases in countries where output had jumped.

The intermediate goods output gap affected nearly all of that sector’s categories led by the textile industry production falling -4.4% mineral products’ -3.2% metal-metal products’ -2.5% electronic components’ -2.7% and wood-paper or cardboard products’ -2.4% The chemical products-rubber or plastic products output recorded the only sector’s output growth +1.2%  

The automobile industry output decline affected both car manufacturing -0.7% and car equipment production -2.4% as a direct result of a sluggish internal market and fierce competition from foreign car makers. The capital goods output drop saw the mechanical equipments output fall -1.7% the boats-planes-trains-motorcycles output a slight -0.2% the plane and airspace output -1.2% while the rolling railway equipment production climbed +1.1% The electronic and electric output climbed +0.7% aided by a strong medical-orthopedic production +4.1% The construction sector output decline saw building construction output drop -0.9% due to March cold weather similarly to the civil engineering output dipping -0.5%

The energy sector by contrast and due to cold weather temperatures saw the fuel and combustibles output rise +4.2% due to the March refined petroleum products output surging +14.2%

Out of the consumer goods group with output climbing +0.4% the book printing-reprints production rose +0.9% and pharmaceuticals-perfume-personal care output +0.6% Inversely, the household equipment output fell an impressive -1.1% and clothing-fur-leather a lesser -0.1%

In one year to March, the overall industrial output fell -0.5% impacted by a general production decline : the construction output fell the hardest -3.3% with the building output declining -3.4% Intermediate goods’ dipped -0.9% the food and agriculture industry’s -1.7% consumer goods’ -0.3% and energy -0.5% Only two sectors’ output,the automobile industry and capital goods, recorded positive manufacturing growth, respectively +1.3% and +0.3% 

Overall unemployment grew +2.8% in Q1 against the previous quarter to a total 2 769 000 million jobless and new registrants grew +1.6% on the same period to 2 479 000 from 2 440 000 Impacting all age groups, unemployment nevertheless affected again the under 25 the most, with a jobless rate jumping +6.3% against the previous quarter despite a slight -0.2% respite in both January and February erased however by +1% upsurge in March. New registrants accounted for the largest jobless segment as university graduates spend on average 8 months prior to receiving their first job offers, leaving thus many to be faced with underemployment. The 25 to 49 age bracket saw unemployment rise +1.8% and the 50+ jobless rate increased +2% unlike previous quarters. In one year, the overall jobless rate increased +2.1% and duplicating this quarter’s pattern, the under 25 jobless rate climbed +4.5% the 50+ age group rate rose a slight +0.2% while the intermediate age bracket jobless rate increased +1.8%  

Per gender and in Q1, overall male unemployment grew +3.3% faster than females’ +2.3% and similarly in one year +3.1% against +1.1% for females. In Q1, males under 25 recorded a strong +6% jobless rate increase while the 25 to 49 age group jobless rate rose +2.4% and the 50+ increased +2.7% 

In one year and as regards males, only the 50+ age group recorded a slight -0.4% jobless rate decline although this age group, referred to as “seniors” remains for the most part under represented and is officially exempt from a job search due to the "over 50" criterion. The 25 to 49 age group jobless rate rose +2.9% while the under 25 jobless rate increased an alarming +6.3% Among females and in Q1, the young female unemployment rate increased +6.7% faster than young males’ while the 25 to 49 age group inversely saw the female jobless rate rise +1.1% The 50+ jobless rate climbed +1.8% In one year , overall female unemployment rose +1.1% as both the intermediate 25 to 49 age group and the 50+ saw their respective rates increase +0.8% and +0.9% The under 25 jobless rate grew +2.5%

Overall job offers rose a slight +1.2% in Q1 but remained dwarfed by jobless figures. Short term job offers (under 6 months) skyrocketed +33% twice the rate of long term offers (over 6 months) climbing +17% while occasional jobs fell -7.1% In one year, overall job offers grew +10% impacted by an impressive +18% occasional job offers increase heralding yet more precariousness as long term offers only grew +2.3% and temporary job offers +5%

Unemployment registrations due to lay off in Q1 increased +2.1% unlike registrations due to the end of short term employment collapsing -21.8% Registrations due to the end of temporary fell -3.1% In one year, registrations due to lay off declined -11% (unlike the previous period between March 2003 and March 2004 when that registration criterion had jumped +17%) Registrations due to the end of short term employment and to temporary employment averaged each -8.3% drop confirming thus a sluggish labor market offering little perspective but temporary jobs. 

Overall company creations remained unchanged in Q1 gaining a slight +0.1% and pushed upwards by new companies climbing +1.1% while buy-backs recorded a -2.3% drop following the previous quarter’s strong upsurge. Reactivations recorded similarly a substantial -2.1% dip as a sluggish economy slowed down potential entrepreneurial financing. The quarter’s seesawing trend affected company creations overall from January when all company categories collapsed to negative figures, despite February’s strong upsurge averaging +7%  In one year, overall company creations fell -5.4% due to Q4 impressive decline. Reactivations fell the hardest -6.4% along with new companies -6% while buy-backs dropped -1% 

Per sector and in Q1 only capital goods, intermediate goods, and transport recorded positive company creation rates climbing respectively +4% +5.7% and + 2.8% Consequently, the services to companies new businesses rebounded +4.9% from the previous quarter’s trend.

All other sectors‘ company set up, both B2C and B2B, declined substantially led by consumer goods falling -9% as a direct consequence of stagnant purchasing power. The real estate group new businesses dipped -8.2% deflating from near saturation levels following months of sustained creations in direct relation with consumer demand due to severe housing shortage.

The services to individuals sector new set ups dropped -1% following a productive previous quarter in spite of transportation costs while construction’s declined -0.8% Education-health services and social services new businesses fell -4.9% faced with a recurring lack of both public and private financing while company creations in the food and agriculture industry sector dipped -3.4% impacted downwards by the second quarter’s gap. The commerce sector entered a declining phase and dipped -2.2% The services to companies group new companies grew +4.9% and the intermediate goods sector‘s rose +5.7% In one year to March, only real estate +0.3% and intermediate Goods +0.8% recorded positive company creation rates as a sluggish economy impacted downwards all sectors.

Transport fell the hardest -15.5% due to both soaring oil prices (U$D Rotterdam crude oil per barrel jumped +57.4% to $52.9 from $33.6) and fierce competition from neighboring countries offering cheaper service due to extremely low labor costs. Four sectors suffered directly from stagnant consumer and corporate demand underlining little perspective for investment as early as the previous quarter : the consumer goods sector company creation rate declined -8.4% commerce’s dropped -7% services to individuals’-5.2% and services to companies’ -5.7% The Education-social services sector chronic staff shortage due for the most part to low wages in addition to a cut in financing saw company creations collapse -11.2% Capital goods’ negative performance -11% resulted from both a dip during the September-March period the previous year and a sluggish economic environment characterized by slow order books.

The food and agriculture industry  recorded the lowest company creations decline -1.5% as a hectic third quarter the previous year balanced out the overall figure similarly to construction -1% benefiting from last year’s first and third quarter company creations upsurge.

The overall industry output prices index climbed +0.5% in Q1 impacted upwards by all sectors substantial increases averaging +0.8% with the exception of the food and agriculture industry price index declining -0.4% 

The automobile industry price index increased +0.8% with the output price index climbing +1% unlike the automobile equipment slight +0.3% gain despite raw material prices. 

The capital goods price index grew at a rate similar to the automobile industry’s with farming machinery recording an impressive +1.4% price increase, smelting work products +1% electric transformers +0.8% and medical surgery-orthopedic equipment +0.4% The sound-picture transmission equipment recorded the only price index cut and shed -0.4% The intermediate goods price index climbed +0.7% slightly lower than the automobile sector, despite most price index increases : the mineral products price index surged +1.8% chemical-rubber products +0.7% metals-metal products +1.7%, and electric-electronic components +0.3% Only two items price indices, textile and wood-paper-cardboard products dropped mildly, -0.1% each preventing a higher index surge.

The energy price index climbed +0.7% with energy products of all usage for professionals (excluding water) increasing +1% faster than fuel and combustibles declining -0.8% due to price index cuts in January and February. The electricity-gas-heat price index surged +1.7% The consumer goods price index remained stable aided by the clothing-leather price index falling -0.3% and pharmaceutical-perfume-personal care products -0.1% despite strong consumer demand. Inversely, the household equipment price index rose +0.3% with the leisure and sport equipment item price index increasing +0.8% Unlike all other sectors, the food and agriculture industry price index declined -0.4% impacted by the meat and meat based products price index cut -0.6% similarly to dairy products and ice cream -0.3% and, transformed cereals for animals -1.6% 

In one year to March, the overall industry output price index climbed a steep +3.1% impacted by energy products of all usage soaring +11.2% Intermediate goods' climbed +4% and capital goods’ +2% The automobile output price index rose +1% but consumer goods’ stayed unchanged and remained below inflationary trends as the pharmaceuticals-personal care products price index declined -0.5% The food and agriculture industry price index declined -1.7% and benefited from similar output price index cuts with four items out of a total six recording significant output price index cuts : the dairy products and ice cream price index declined -2% modified cereals and animal food -9% miscellaneous industrial food products -1.2% and drinks -2.4%

Out of capital goods , the mechanical equipments output price index jumped +3.5% while the automobile sector’s equipment price index +0.4%

The energy products of all usage for professionals (excluding water) output price index soared +15% as combustibles and fuels’ skyrocketed +20% Out of intermediate goods, the mineral products output price index climbed +7% chemical-rubber and plastic products’ +6.3% while the textile output price index declined -0.3% and wood-paper-cardboard products fell -0.6%

INDUSTRY PRICES INDEX - IMPORTS - Q1 2005                                                               

A majority of import prices increased in Q1 led by coal climbing +2.6% , as a direct result of sustained demand during the winter period arching over a lack of local supply due to coal mines shut down. Abrasive import prices reversed the previous quarter’s downward trend and increased +1.7% while farming tractors import prices regular increases rose yet +0.8%

Consumer goods recorded mild to significant price cuts as a strong consumer demand allowed for larger orders : reception-video recording equipment prices fell -2.4% soaps-detergents recorded a milder -0.4% price decline and optical-photo material and equipment -0.5% Tobacco import prices (including a consumption tax) remained stable.

In one year, coal, abrasive and farming tractors import prices recorded the strongest import prices surge, mirroring their respective monthly increases : coal import prices jumped +24% abrasive grew +2.5% and farming tractors +2.7% Consumer goods similarly reflected their monthly price import indices with soap-detergents prices climbing a mild +0.4% reception-video recording equipment declined a strong -11.3% and optical photo equipment -7.5% Tobacco import prices stayed unchanged.

INDUSTRY PRICES INDEX - Q1 2005 French output sold on the French market and re-sell price in France of imported goods

Imported goods re-sold on the French market increased overall as regards industrial products leaving little margin for profit with the exception of abrasive climbing +1% but able to engender substantial benefit due to a wide import price spread. By contrast, the farming tractors re-sell price index rose +0.9% getting closer to import prices compared with the previous quarter. The consumer goods re-sell prices index revealed a near zero margin context balanced out however by strong demand and therefore increased volume : the reception and video equipment re-sell price index declined -2% nearly matching its import price index, soaps-detergents climbed a mild +0.3% as well as the photo-material and equipment price index rising +0.6% The optical and eyewear re-sell price index fell -0.3% In one year, consumer goods remained among the few products to record significant import price cuts : the reception-video equipment and photo material price indexes declined each an impressive -11% Soaps-detergents fell a mild -0.3% The abrasive re-sell price index grew a slight +0.4% unlike farming tractors recording a strong +3% increase and to a lesser extent optical and eyewear +1.8% 

CONSUMER PRICES  INDEX -METROPOLE - Q1 2005                                                                               

The overall consumer price index remained stable in Q1 as energy and manufactured products price indices declines, respectively -0.7% and -1% allowed for the index to remain tamed. Nevertheless, the food consumer price index kept rising +0.9% impacted by the fresh produce price index climbing +2% as a harsh winter reduced both output and demand.

By contrast, the manufactured products -1% price index cut saw the clothing and shoes price indices fall -4.6% and health care products a mild -0.2%

The energy consumer price index slight -0.7% cut along with oil products’ -1.3% was nevertheless nearly erased by the services retail price index +1% gain: the rent and transport-communication consumer prices index climbed each +1.2% additional health coverage +1% and health care services +0.2% In one year, the overall consumer price index rose +2% impacted by the energy index climbing +10% and out of which the oil price index jumped +16% as trading prices per Rotterdam crude oil barrel increased +57.4% to US$52.9 from US$33.6 On the same period domestic fuel (Rotterdam U$D/t) soared +65.7% to U$D497 from U$D300 Fresh produce consequently reflected such retail price index increases due to heating costs and climbed +7.6% The fresh vegetables price index jumped +6%

The services price index mirrored its monthly increases climbing +2.8% with the rent price index rising +3.6% The transport and communication price index grew +3% with the postal services consumer price index jumping +5.5% and telecom services +3.4% The private car use retail price index rose +7% car accessories and spare items +3% due to plastic and aluminum while the car repair consumer price index climbed +4.4% as electricity for professionals recorded substantial price increases. The additional health coverage retail price index rose +3% and health care services +0.7%

The price of bread stabilized in Q1 following month of regular increases despite the bread making dough price index declining -0.4 to 102.8 from 103.1 as an accumulation of taxes and energy prices for professionals increased on the same period. In one year, the price of bread climbed +2.1% to Euro 2.99 from Euro 2.93 inversely to bread making dough declining -2.1% but energy usage for professionals (excluding water) surged +15% 

Due to fierce competition among distributors, mineral water retail price (6 bottles) fell -0.4% in Q1 and in one year, the same market share strategy forced prices down -3% to Euro 2.88 from Euro 2.97

Beer retail prices also stabilized in Q1 as consumers increasingly favored sweet drinks in part due to stringent road controls against drunk driving and, to new products eye catching packaging . In one year, prices fell -1.4% 

Water supply (120 m3 all tax included) remained unchanged in Q1 but rose +1.3% in one year Domestic fuel retail price (1000 liter home delivery included) declined -2.2% in Q1 due to a strong Euro averaging 1.29 against the dollar as trading prices only fell -0.5% on the same period to U$D/t 440 from U$D/t442 In one year retail prices jumped +35.2% impacted by Q4 record average at Euro 527 and March 05 new hike to Euro 557.37 while trading prices soared +65.7% to USD/t 497 from USD/t 300

The farming activity energy price index stayed stable in Q1 (but soared +23% in one year to 118.6 from 96.6) but some meat products retail prices jumped and, independently from farmers’ prices usually faced with financial losses : hamburger retail price increased a steep +2.6% ham remained stable (superior quality per kilo) but steak grew +1% while veal scallops retail price declined a slight -0.1% In one year, ham retail price fell -1.6% Hamburger consumer retail price shot up +6.7% to Euro 8.31 from Euro 7.79 steak +4.2% to Euro 17.16 from Euro 16.49 and veal scallops +2.4%

 All retail fish products prices in Q1 recorded significant increases due to domestic fuel prices used for fishermen's boats (+66% in one year): fresh salmon retail price per kilo jumped +6% fresh hake per kilo +5.6% fresh cod filet +3.8% due to reduced supply and regular demand while trout retail price climbed at the slowest pace +1.2% In one year, all fish products retail prices recorded impressive increases : fresh cod filet consumer price jumped +9.5% to 15.12 from 13.81 fresh salmon +4.7% to Euro 7.65 from Euro 7.31 fresh hake +3.6% to Euro 7.98 from Euro 7.70 and trout +3.5% from Euro 7.49 from Euro 7.24 

In Q1 , dairy product retail prices including milk, Normandy made Camembert cheese and butter remained stable despite a harsh winter affecting output and lower consumer demand resulting from a tendency to reduce dairy products consumption in cold weather. In one year, pasteurized milk retail price fell -1.9% to Euro 1.01 from Euro 1.03 as consumption remained low, while Normandy Camembert Cheese consumer price remained stable at Euro 1.68

Butter retail price fell a slight -0.7% to Euro 1.52 from Euro 1.53  Extra virgin olive oil retail prices climbed +1% in Q1 as consumption remained on the increase while sunflower oil prices fell a strong -1.8% to grab consumers’ attention with diversified oils in association with home making salad dressing marketing campaigns. In one year, Extra virgin olive oil consumer price climbed +1.7% to Euro 5.27 from Euro 5.18 while sunflower oil retail price declined a strong -5.8% to Euro 1.64 from Euro 1.74

Pears retail pricecs per kilo in Q1 jumped +6.5% despite a strong Euro as such imported fruit originated mostly from South Africa while the wholesale price increased +17% on the same period (to Euro 90.82 100kg tax included from Euro 77.71 ) Apples retail price by contrast remained stable although wholesale price grew +5.6% to Euro 123 from Euro 116.5 In one year however, pears retail price fell -15.1% to Euro 2.14 from Euro 2.52 impacted by Q3 low prices (averaging Euro 1.94) while apples consumer price fell -7.6% to Euro 2.06 from Euro 2.23 

Carrots retail price per kilo climbed +1.1% in Q1 while lettuce per head soared +34.4% impacted by heating costs. In one year, carrots retail price fell -14.5% to Euro 1.00 from Euro 1.17 as prices declined from July thru February under Euro 1.00 while the price per lettuce jumped +61.7% to 2.07 from 1.28 due to heating costs, and, despite lower consumer demand favoring increasingly package lettuce.

MONTHLY INTERNATIONAL PRICES INDEX : IMPORTED RAW MATERIALS - Q1 2005 

In Euro, the overall Imported Raw Materials Price Index climbed +2.9% in Q1 impacted by both the foodstuff price index increasing +3.5% and industrial products’ +3.1% The tropical food price index rose an impressive +9% as the quarter’s last month inflationary trend impacted upwards the overall index. Similarly, non ferrous metals climbed +4.6% as nickel, zinc, copper, and aluminum trading prices recorded new highs : nickel settlement climbed +9.1% to U$D/t 15337.1 from U$D/t14064.7 zinc jumped +18% to U$D/t1314.1 from U$D/t1113.7 copper grade A settlement rose +5.4% to U$D/t 3270 from U$D/t3102.2 and aluminum high grade settlement +4% to U$D/t 1898.6 from U$D/t 1826.9 The wood pulp price index gained a substantial +5% increase although trading prices rose higher +6.2% to U$D/t 635.5 from U$D/t 599.3

The sugar price index stabilized at the previous quarter’s level preventing the index to climb further along with the natural rubber and leather price indexes falling respectively -0.6% inversely to trading prices and -2.3% higher than trading prices -1.1% decline. In one year and with the leather price index collapsing -11.2% and natural rubber -10.5% the overall Euro imported raw materials price index fell -0.8% Sugar +27.2% gain and tropical food impressive +17% surge led the foodstuff index to jump +9.4% dwarfing the industrial products index +3.2% increase with non ferrous metals climbing +8% The wood pulp price index fell -1% Nevertheless, and due to the Euro 30 percentage change with the dollar, trading prices decline in currency affected twice as much the imported raw materials price index expressed in Euro.

In currency and in Q1 the overall Imported Raw Materials Price Index rose +4% as a weak dollar kept increasing cost in dollar terms impacting the foodstuff price index upwards +4.6% along with industrial products’ +4.2% Unlike the Euro price index, sugar increased +1% despite -0.4% decline in the quarter’s last month while other food price indexes recorded substantial increases in a similar pattern : tropical food climbed +10% and oil seeds +4% By contrast the cereals price index fell a strong -9% impacted downwards by lower prices during the quarter. Out of industrial products, the wood pulp price index +6.2% increase climbed faster than non ferrous metals’ +5.9% while the natural rubber price index grew a slight +0.6% similarly to trading prices Natural leather fell -1.2% slightly above trading prices -1.1% decline.

In one year and in currency, the overall index increased +6.3% despite the food stuff price index declining -3.1% due to the cereals price index collapsing -20% and oilseeds -18.7% Tropical food, surging +26% and sugar +36.8% balanced out such declines mirroring exactly their respective trading prices. By contrast, the industrial products price index rose +10.7% impacted by non ferrous metals climbing +16% and wood pulp +6.6% Natural rubber -3.7% decline and leather -4.5% prevented the index to climb further. 

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