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 EN FRANCAIS

KEY INDICATORS- Q2 2005 : Idustrial output index, turnover indices, the labor market - metropole-,  job offers , compnay creations, french industry output prices index vat excluded for the french market, industry prices index - imports-, industry prices index -imported goods re-sold on the french market, consumer prices index -metropole-, international imported raw materials, car registrations, external trade  

The industrial output index declined -0.6% in Q2 despite the quarter’s last two months upsurge due to the dollar +4% gain against the Euro. Nevertheless, only three sectors recorded positive production growth rates : the CONSUMER GOODS output index climbed +0.4% CAPITAL GOODS’ +1.2% and CONSTRUCTION’s +0.6% while the AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY, usually best performer, saw production decline -0.1% The INTERMEDIATE GOODS production index fell -0.9% and the ENERGY output index dipped -3.2% reflecting a general industrial slow down. The FOOD & AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY recorded the lowest output index drop -0.2% 

Sectors that succeeded in maintaining some output growth involved heavy industrial goods and equipment : the capital goods output index picked up thanks to the space-airship products output +4% surge in April, as well as mechanical equipment out of which the farming machinery output index increased +6% The shipbuilding products output index rose +9% in May and electric and electronic equipment +1.6% That same month recorded some output upsurge although mild for the most part : the intermediate goods sector, impacted by the textile group output index decline from the first quarter due to heavy Chinese imports (+40% in volume and +30% in value according to French Customs) nevertheless picked up momentum +1.8% The paper and cardboard output index climbed +1.1% chemical products-rubber and plastic +0.6% and metallic products remained stable shedding a slight -0.1% With stock levels remaining high, the automobile industry output index dropped -1.4% The consumer goods output index fell -0.3% construction’s slid back -0.2% and the energy output index only climbed +0.3% Between May and June, the automobile industry and intermediate goods managed to slightly reduce stock levels respectively -33 from -39 and 13 from 19 but the automobile sector order books worsened from -17 to -20 unlike intermediate goods improving to -30 from -41  Capital goods’ stock level 21 and consumer goods’ 11 remained stable while international order books improved respectively from -9 to -1 and from -21 to -12 

In one year, the overall industrial output index fell -0.5% impacted by major sectors : the automobile output index fell a strong -1% intermediate goods' dipped -2.1% the food and agriculture industry -1.5% and construction -0.4% Sectors that managed to salvage the index from falling further recorded mild output index growth : the consumer goods production index rose +0.9% thanks to the book printing and reprint output index rising +1.7% pharmaceutical and personal care products surged +2.6% and home equipment +2.9%

TURNOVER INDICES - Q2 2005                                                                                                 

The overall turnover index remained flat in Q2 and only consumer spending, although unsteady, along with some local industrial demand, maintained the economy above a potential recession line.

Source: Insee  

The local CONSUMER GOODS turnover index increased +0.7% and outperformed the export turnover index +0.5% gain in Q2 unlike previous years as a strong Euro and accrued competition from new EU members shifted international order books to lesser priced producers. The clothing and leather export turnover index grew +2.5% against last year's turnover average inversely to the local turnover index -0.6% dip. The book printing and reprint component recorded turnover indices declines respectively -0.6% (local) and -0.4% (export) The perfume and personal care product local turnover index jumped +9.3% while the export turnover index declined -3.6% Out of the home equipment category, with both local and export indices declining respectively -0.6% and -1% best performers as regards local turnover growth only included sport items and games +1.5% gain and optical-photography-clock making goods +2.4% rebound.

The AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY local turnover index grew +0.6% in Q2 and inversely export turnover dipped -0.3% although the export turnover index overall performance salvaged that sector. Against last year’s average however, both turnover indices recorded noticeable declines -2.8% (local) and -4.2% (export) The INTERMEDIATE GOODS local turnover index rose +0.8% in Q2 and export turnover fell -0.4% Compared with last year’s average, both turnover indices appeared linear although the local turnover index climbed +2.8% unlike the export turnover -0.7% decline. On the same period, the local electric and electronic equipment turnover index performed best jumping +17.9% but declined -2.9% as regards export turnover. One other item and locally, the mineral products turnover index, grew +3.9% but export turnover slid -5.3% The textile turnover indices each (local and export) collapsed on average -8% paper-wood and card board fell -1.6% (local) and -1.2% (export)

The CAPITAL GOODS local and export turnover indices both declined in Q2 respectively -0.6% and -1% Compared with last year’s average, both turnover indices recorded mild but steady increases and many items recorded substantial export turnover growth : the industrial equipment process control grew the strongest +8% the mechanical equipment export turnover index climbed +7.5% general machinery +5.3% farming machinery +5.7% and orthopedic-surgical equipment +2.5%

THE LABOR MARKET - METROPOLE - Q2 2005                                                                         

In revised figures, overall unemployment declined -0.5% in Q2 to 2 748 000 million jobless and stayed stable in one year climbing a slight +0.1% The under 25 age group jobless rate remained unchanged at +0.1% and the  25 to 49 unemployment rate fell -0.5% The 50+ unemployment rate decreased  the most -1.3% although many "seniors" remain unaccounted for due to a registration exemption criterion based on age. 

In one year, the 50+ jobless rate fell -2.4% and the under 25 benefited from a lower jobless rate decline -1.3% By contrast unemployment increased +1.3% for the 25 to 49 age bracket. 

Per gender and in Q2, both female and male unemployment declined, respectively -0.4% and -0.5% but widened per age group: unemployment among males under 25 stayed unchanged and remained quasi stable among females of the same age group at +0.2% While male unemployment for the 25 to 49 age bracket rose +0.3% female unemployment decreased -0.6% By contrast, for the 50+ male unemployment fell -1% while female unemployment increased +1.2% 

In one year, female unemployment decreased -0.5% while male unemployment grew +0.8% Male unemployment for the under 25 fell -2.1% while female's stayed unchanged. The 25 to 49 age bracket female unemployment also remained stable while male's increased +2.9% For the 50+ female unemployment dipped -3.5% while male's decreased -1.3%  

Source: Insee

Source: Insee

Job offers reflected an atone labor market in Q2 climbing +1.4% to 269 000 offers against the previous quarter 255 000 offers and, dwarfed by unemployment figures expressed in millions. In addition, short term offers grew an impressive +14.2% outperforming long term offers +5% increase while occasional offers skyrocketed +22.1% heralding thus yet another precariousness labor market trend. In one year, overall job offers rose +4% while short term offers nearly matched long term offers climbing respectively +3% and +4% Occasional job offers rose a slight +1% 

In Q2 all unemployment registration criteria declined but none recorded positive effects on the labor market : the end of temporary employment declined -22.4% along with the end of short term employment -11% Due to a stagnant labor market the end of registration for being back to work declined a slight -0.5% The end of registration for lay-offs fell -2.5% In one year, the end of registration for being back to work worsened dipping -5.1% and nearing the end of short term employment -7.5% and the end of temporary employment -5.2% Registrations for lay-off declined -13.6% but all figures reflected above all an extremely atone labor market.

Overall company creations fell -1.9% in Q2 to 25 762 from the previous quarter’s 26 249 and all categories recorded significant declines: buy-backs fell the hardest -5.1% along with reactivations -3.4% following a strong upsurge in March. New company creations fell -0.8% In one year, overall company creations dipped -2.4% and mirrored the quarter’s pattern as buy-backs slid -8.6% and reactivations -6.6% New companies declined -0.2% 

Per sector and in Q2 a sluggish economic environment left little room for company creations to thrive in addition to uncertainties directly related to the May European Constitution Referendum. Only three sectors recorded new company growth rates: transport kept increasing and jumped +7% despite record oil prices in April and June averaging U$D55 per barrel and a substantial currency gain against the Euro. Real estate benefited yet again from a lasting housing shortage and soared +17.5% against the previous quarter’s negative dip. Education-health-social services similarly recorded an upsurge +3.4% against the previous quarter’s negative performance.

All other sectors saw company creations fall, impacted by two consecutive months of declines despite June overall rebound. Intermediate goods new companies dipped -5.7% as the quarter’s first month negative trend imbalanced the quarter overall. New companies in the construction sector fell -4.3% in addition to being impacted by unusually cold winter conditions the previous quarter forcing activities to slow down. Company creations in the commerce sector declined -2.3% and remained on a negative trend for two consecutive quarters. Services to companies reflected uncertainty as regards the May Referendum results and rose a slight +0.5% compared with the previous quarter’s +4.9% Services to individuals new companies collapsed -6.7% although creations in March had increased substantially. Consumer goods and capital goods recorded the mildest company creation declines respectively -0.5% and -0.8% despite a massive -9% fall the first quarter as regards the former and a +4% rebound for the latter. The food and agriculture sector’s new companies fell -1.2% 

In one year to June, five sectors out of a total 11 recorded significant company creation increases : the food and agriculture industry new companies rose +4.1% as major supermarket chains expanded their market share via generic brands while simultaneously opening new stores.                           

Source: Insee 

Both construction’s +2.5% and real estate’s +10.8% benefited from a strong and sustained market demand due to housing shortage (housing loans rose +12.4% on the same period due to low interest rates despite inflationary property prices). The services to companies sector recorded a mild +2.4% increase impacted by minimal corporate investments due to the May Referendum uncertainties. 

Education-health and social services maintained a strong company creation growth rate +7% benefiting from the novelty of that sector.

Sectors affected by company creation declines involved areas impacted by both soaring raw material prices and an atone internal market : capital goods new companies dipped -2.7% as a direct result of slow order books, both local and international, reducing thus the number of potential subcontractors likely to set up businesses. Consumer goods company creations fell -2.9% similarly to consumer spending. Intermediate goods recorded one of the strongest decline -8.6% as inflationary raw material prices and the textile crisis arched over the lack of order books. Commerce, known as the highest company bankruptcy rate sector, saw company creations fall -6.9% and, for reasons similar to the consumer goods sector, while transport collapsed -14.1% as a direct result of trading oil prices soaring +54.7% to U$D/barrel 54.3 from U$D/barrel 35.1 The services to individuals sector -7.6% dip suffered from slow consumer spending due to the labor market uncertainty despite tax incentives brought about by government measures to boost that sector.

FRENCH INDUSTRY OUTPUT PRICES INDEX VAT excluded FOR THE FRENCH MARKET - Q2 2005 

Crude oil prices increased +7% in Q2 against the previous quarter and consequently impacted the overall index +0.9% (+0.2% excluding energy and the Food and Agriculture industry) : the energy of all usage output price index climbed +3.3% with energy products for professional usage excluding water surging +4% combustible and fuels +7.3% while electricity-gas and heat output prices declined -0.5%

Two other sectors, dragged by the energy output price index increase, recorded significant output price index increases : the automobile industry output price index rose +0.6% along with the automobile equipment index +0.3% a rate similar to the previous quarter although raw material prices had for the most part declined (aluminum fell -5.7% rubber prices remained stable palladium grew +1.3% - with the exception of steel mineral soaring +38.4% ) The intermediate goods +0.7% output price index gain recorded its strongest quarterly rise due to non ferrous metals +2.5% increase. The capital goods output price index rose at a milder rate +0.2% as the mechanical equipment category climbed +0.4% and, involving mostly steel composed related heavy machinery (the smelting work products output price index rose +0.4% mechanical equipment and general machinery grew each +0.2%) Other items output price index cuts balanced the overall index : the farming machinery price index fell -0.4% and sound-video transmission equipment -0.3% The orthopedic-surgery equipment price index fell -0.5%

The food and agriculture industry output price index due to energy costs grew +0.4% while the consumer goods output price index remained stable -0.1% as the leather and clothing output price index shed -0.7% despite imported international raw material price increases (natural textile fibers climbed +4% in Euro and leather (bovine) +6.2% ) The pharmaceutical and personal care products output price index -0.1% and home equipment +0.1% allowed for the index to remain tamed. 

In one year, the overall index rose a steep +2.9% as the energy of all usage output price index climbed +11.4% with combustibles and fuel soaring +20% and water-gas and electricity +4% Unlike its quarterly increase, the food and agriculture industry output price index fell -1.5% despite imported raw materials price indices +2% increase on average. (the drinks output price index declined -2.2% and manufactured cereals-animal food -9.3% as supermarket chains increasingly introduced their own products reducing thus distribution and producers margins and expenses)

Source: Insee  

The intermediate goods output price index increased similarly to the overall index with the chemical-rubber and plastic products category output price index climbing +4.3% The mineral chemical products output price index rose +6% organic chemicals jumped +13.2% and plastic products +2.4% inversely to rubber products’ -2.4% index price cut. The metal-metallic product category output price index grew +5% with the steel transformation output price index rising +12% while other items recorded increases averaging +3% The non ferrous metals output price index increased +8% The automobile industry output price index rose +1.9% as a direct result of non ferrous metals price increases although the car equipment price index only rose +1.3% 

The capital goods output price index climbed +1% with the mechanical equipments component rising +2.7% and smelting work products +4.3%

The overall Imported Raw Material prices index jumped +8.6% in Q2 and in Euro impacted by the quarter’s last month upward trend leading to the foodstuff index to climb +6.2% as well as industrial products +9.3% Out of both items, only two produce indices recorded lesser increases : the sugar price index gained a mild +0.8% (trading prices fell -3.4% cents/lb to 8.6 from cents/lb 8.9) and wood pulp +1.6% (trading prices decreased -2.3% to U$D/t 621.6 from U$D/t 636.5) By contrast, the oil seeds price index rose +8.8% recording a substantial +7.1% gain between May and June alone. Similarly, the cereals price index jumped +13.8% against the previous quarter and soared +19.3% in one month. Tropical food climbed at a lesser rate than the previous quarter but still increased +6.1% and +5.4% and on the same periods.

Out of Industrial products the non ferrous metals price index +5.3% increase was outperformed by leather’s +6.1% as items such as zinc trading prices declined -3% unlike previous inflationary quarters. The nickel price index rose +6.9% aluminum +5.7% and copper +4.7% The natural rubber price index gained a substantial +4.2% despite stable trading prices averaging cents/kg 126 per quarter.

In one year, the overall imported raw materials price index expressed in Euro climbed +10.4% with the industrial products price index +12.6% gain and foodstuff +5.1% Inversely to their respective quarterly performances, the sugar and non ferrous metals price indices jumped: the sugar price index soared +26.6% as demand for ethanol in lieu of alternative energy remained high particularly in Brazil.

The non ferrous metals price index increased an impressive +17.6% : zinc trading prices jumped +25% to U$D/t 1276.6 from U$D/t 1021.5 nickel’s rose +19.5% to U$D/t 16168.8 from U$D/t 13527.5 and copper grade A settlement +31.1% to U$D 3522 from U$D/t 2686.7 The aluminum price index increased a mild +3.3% taming thus the overall non ferrous metals prices index. The natural rubber price index increased +4.9% with trading prices recording modest but steady monthly increases throughout the year while the wood pulp price index fell -7.9% as the extensive use of both electronic means of communications (including administrative documents, and the media) and recycled paper saw paper demand rescind.

In currency and despite the dollar +4% gain against the Euro in Q2 and +7.8% increase in one year, the overall imported raw materials prices index grew +4.5% with both the foodstuff +2% and industrial products +5.1% price indices remaining still higher than the Euro price indices in dollar terms. The sugar price index did not sustain the dollar increase and declined -3.4% and similarly, out of industrial products the wood pulp price index fell -2.3% The non ferrous metals price index only rose +1.2% as interest shifted from one currency to another. The natural rubber price index remained stable. 

In one year however, the currency index gap with the Euro narrowed and the overall imported raw materials price index rose +10.6% nearly similarly to the Euro +10.4% increase leaving all items and index categories to mirror the Euro price index: the foodstuff price index increased +5.3% and industrial products +12.8% The sugar and non ferrous metals price indices soared respectively +26.8% and +17.7% The leather price index grew +0.9% and the wood pulp price index declined an impressive -7.8%

The industry import prices index declined in Q2 with the exception of the coal imports price index reaching inflationary trends +7.4% due to the lack of local supply faced with sustained demand brought about by unusually cold temperatures. The farming tractors import price index remained stable +0.5% despite a strong Euro and non ferrous metals soaring prices including rubber and plastic. The abrasive import price index fell -3.1% and the tobacco import price index remained stable. Most consumer goods import price indices stayed unchanged: the optical-photo material and equipment price index shed -0.1% the soaps-detergents price index fell -0.7% and only one item, reception-video recording equipment , recorded a major -4.1% price index cut.

In one year to June, the import prices index reflected the quarter’s trends : the coal import price index soared +15.9% and jumped +8% from last June against last May averaging +3% increases month on month. Farming tractors recorded a significant +2.3% import price index increase inversely to abrasive -2.5%. Out of consumer goods, the reception-video recording equipment import price index fell the strongest -13.1% while the optical-photo material and equipment price index declined -2.7% The soaps-detergents import price index and tobacco remained stable. 

INDUSTRY PRICES INDEX - Q2 2005 French output sold on the French market and re-sell price in France of imported goods

Only three products out of imported goods re-sold on the French market in Q2 recorded some profit margin, although minor, while the majority of products induced loss despite a strong Euro : the farming tractors price index increased +0.4% (against +0.5% import price index) and reception-video material and equipment shed -3.8% (against a stable -0.1% import price index) The soaps-detergents price index grew +0.7% inversely to import prices, abrasive fell -0.1% (compared with -3.1% import price cut index) and, the optical eyewear price index grew +0.6% identically to the import price index.

In one year, a similar pattern emerged with the same items recording some index price increases: the soaps-detergents price index grew +1.4% and abrasive declined -0.4% while the optical eyewear price index gained +2% The farming tractors price index increased +2% below the import price index similarly to the reception-video material and equipment price index cut -10.7% The photo material and equipment price index fell -3.2% and only the tobacco price index remained stable.

CONSUMER PRICES INDEX - METROPOLE - Q2 2005                                                         

The overall consumer prices index increased a steep +1% in Q2 impacted by the energy price index climbing +3.8% as the oil products price index rose +6.1% The food price index gained +0.6% with the fresh produce price index jumping +4.4% as a direct result of harsh winter conditions and gasoline-fuel trading prices soaring +17% in March to U$D/t 497 from U$D/t 418 and +14% in June to U$D/t 516 from U$D/t 452 The other food products price index remained stable.

The manufactured products price index increased +0.8% with the clothing and shoes price index increasing the strongest +4.5% and, reflecting the imported raw materials price index out of which natural rubber and leather climbed respectively +4.2% and +6.1% despite the increasing volume of lesser priced imported shoes from China and Portugal. The health care products and other manufactured products price indices remained stable. The services price index increased +0.6% with the rent-water and garbage removal price index climbing the fastest +0.9% followed by the health care services and additional health care rising each +0.7% The transport and communication price index declined a slight -0.5%

In one year to June, the overall consumer price index increased +1.6% and two sectors accounted for the index upward trend: the energy price index surged +6.1% with the oil products price index soaring +15.2% The services price index rose +2.8% with the rent-water-garbage removal price index climbing + 3.8% Out of the services category the additional health care price index rose +3.1% transport and communication +0.8% due to sea transportation and stamps price increases while the health care service price index rose +1%

The manufactured products minimal price index cut -0.3% saw the clothing and shoes price index climb +1% while the health care products price index fell -0.6% and other manufactured products -0.7% The food price index reversed its quarterly upward trend and fell -0.8% as the fresh produce price index declined -1.7% and other food products -0.6%

EXTERNAL TRADE - Q2 2005                                                                                                          

The external trade deficit worsened in Q2 with exports climbing +1.4% and totaling Euro 29073bn against imports increasing +2.1% to Euro 31746bn Only two sectors, consumer goods and energy, recorded export growth rates above 3% respectively +3.2% or Euro 4445bn and an impressive +22.2% or a total Euro 1234bn 

The food and agriculture industry exports rose +2% or Euro 2484bn and the automobile sector’s +1.7% or Euro 4504bn unlike previous periods when both sectors had outperformed all others. Intermediate goods recorded an even milder exports growth rate +0.9% or a total Euro 8858bn and saw exports in revenue nearly match local turnover. Capital goods exports declined -1.9% to Euro 6497bn from Euro 6622bn but export turnover similarly to the automobile sector outperformed the domestic turnover. Fisheries and agriculture saw exports fall -2.1% to Euro 869mn from Euro 888mn

Imports remained slow overall due to high stock levels and consequently all sectors recorded slow import increases : the automobile industry imports remained stable at +0.1% to Euro 3674bn from Euro 3670bn as stock levels had stayed high. The intermediate goods sector international order books rock bottom level saw imports grow a minimal +0.8% to Euro 9509bn from Euro 9438bn 

Imports of consumer goods rose +2.2% to Euro 5177bn from Euro 5068bn as that sector benefited from a sustained local consumer demand while capital goods imports increased +2.6% to Euro 6456bn from Euro 6295bn . Fisheries and agriculture imports grew +2.4% to Euro 739mn from Euro 722mn.

Source: Insee

The food and agriculture industry imports climbed +1.9% to Euro 1980bn from Euro 1943bn and energy imports increased +2.7% to Euro 4024bn from Euro 3919bn while both oil prices and the dollar increases averaged each +8% on the same period.

In one year to June, the trade gap widened with imports increasing +6% or Euro 31395bn from Euro 29557bn while exports rose +2.1% to Euro 29042bn from 28445bn Exports nevertheless rebounded for the most part : consumer goods exports grew the strongest +4.2% to Euro 4431bn from Euro 4251bn Capital goods increased +3% to Euro 6598bn from Euro 6405bn The automobile industry and intermediate goods averaged +2% each respectively to Euro 4506bn from Euro 4416bn and to Euro 8781bn from Euro 8594bn The fisheries-agriculture and the food and agriculture industry exports declined respectively -1.5% and -1.2% to Euro 859mn from Euro 872mn and to Euro 2456bn from Euro 2487bn The energy sector recorded the strongest export increase +50.7% to Euro 1299bn from Euro 28445bn but

Per region, exports to the OECD, France’s biggest trade partner, totalled in Q2 Euro 23349bn out of a global Euro 29042bn but rose a modest +0.7% from Euro 23121bn the previous quarter to Euro 23287bn The European Union ranked second with total exports Euro 19039bn and averaged a similar exports rate from Euro 18874bn to Euro 19011bn and on the same period. The Asean region (Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Singapour Tailand Brunei, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia Birmany) and the MEA area represented France’s smallest trade partner with exports totaling Euro 3110bn but grew a strong +7.4% (from Euro 2953bn to Euro 3171bn) unlike exports to the Euro area rising a minimal +0.3% to Euro 14690bn from Euro 14647bn

Source: Insee  - AMEA* Africa only

Imports remained tamed and climbed +0.9% from each the OECD to Euro 24396bn from 24188bn the EU to Euro 19832bn from Euro 19654bn and the Euro area to Euro 16226bn from Euro 16085bn The Asean region and the MEA area imports by contrast increased +4.2% to Euro 2917bn from Euro 2799bn 

In one year, imports rose substantially and among all regions : the Asean region and the MEA area market share jumped +11% to Euro 2777bn from Euro 2502bn Imports from the EU increased +7.9% to Euro 19614bn from 18177bn Imports from the Euro area followed closely climbing +7.1% to 15999bn from 14934bn while imports from the OECD rose a more modest +5.5% to 24275bn from 23004bn

New car registrations increased +14% in Q2 and saw foreign and gas engine car registrations growth rates jump respectively +18% and +24.4% despite crude oil prices increasing +8.4% on the same period to U$D/barrel 51.6 from U$D/barrel 47.6 rendering energy cost higher in Euro. French car registrations increased +11.6% and diesel engine car registrations climbed +10.3% while second hand car registrations grew +8.4%

In volume however, second hand cars, French and diesel engine run remained in the lead with a total 480 000 units sold in Q2 compared with 200 000 new cars ; diesel engine cars outperformed gas engine cars with a total 137 000 units sold against 62 700 units.

All car registrations recorded the expected March and June peaks due to pay increases and bonuses usually granted then. This quarter thus benefited from well planned purchases prior to summer vacations, and, despite the yearly October car fair when car sales increase even faster. Output increased +16.9% and exports +12%

Source: Insee 

In one year, output rebounded +4.3% nearly matching exports +4.4% surge. Second hand car registrations remained lead performer in volume but dipped -2.7% due to multiple car sales and « money saving » type incentives averaging Euro 3000 or more and thus pushing up new car sales. New foreign and gas engine cars remained best performer with +7.2% and +3.8% market share increases although oil prices had soared +54.7% to U$D/barrel 54.3 from U$D/barrel 35.1  French car registrations fell -0.5% and diesel engine car registrations grew +2% 

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