FRANCE NEWS ECONOMY.COM          

Key Indicators

     2008

Q1 2008  

     2007

Q1 2007     more

Q2 2007    more

Q3 2007    more

Q4 2007    more

    2006

Q1 2006    more

Q2 2006    more

Q3 2006    more

Q4 2006    more

    2005

Q1 2005  more

Q2 2005    more

Q3 2005    more

Q4 2005   more

    2004

Q1 2004  more

Q2 2004    more

Q3 2004    more

Q4 2004   more

 EN FRANCAIS

KEY INDICATORS Q3 2006 : external trade, company creations,consumer prices index- metropole- , industrial output index, labor market - metropole-, job offers

EXTERNAL TRADE FRANCE & DEPARTMENTS - Q3 2006                                 

Exports fell -0.2% in Q3 to a total Euro 32 215bn against the previous quarter while imports rose +1% to Euro 35 850bn. In one year however, exports rose +8% to a provisional Euro 32 856bn and imports +6.3% to Euro 35 393bn. 

On this quarterly period the capital goods sector recorded the strongest exports decline -3.4% to Euro 7 650bn along with agriculture-fisheries -2.8% dip to Euro 866mn To a lesser extent, the consumer goods sector exports fell -0.1% to Euro

In volume and on the same period, most sectors saw their respective market share shrink with the exception of the food and agriculture industry +1.2% volume index increase and the energy sector +4.7% gain. The agriculture-fisheries sector saw its market share dive -8% and consumer goods -2.5% similarly to the automobile industry. Capital goods market share decreased -1.8% and intermediate goods -1%

Per region, exports to the EU 25 fell the hardest -2.7% and decreased -2.4% to the Euro area but stayed stable to the OECD inversely to the previous quarter. Exports to the Asean region (Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, Tailand, Brunei, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Birmany ) increased +2% and rose +1.8% to Africa.

Imports performed overall inversely to exports in Q3 and in value increased the most as regards the agriculture-fisheries sector +8.1% to Euro 811mn (and +9.7% in volume index) The food and agriculture industry imports rose +2.3% to Euro 2 152bn (and +1.8% in volume index) while consumer goods grew +3.3% to Euro 5 657bn (and +1.2% in volume index) By contrast, and due to a slow industrial demand, the automobile industry imports fell -2.4% to Euro 3 768bn since consumer demand stayed tamed and decreased -3.6% in volume index. Similarly, capital goods imports declined -1.6% to             Euro 7 291bn (and a massive -7.2% in volume index) unlike intermediate goods +3.1% increase to Euro 10 799bn (and +2.2% in volume) The energy sector imports decreased -2.4% to Euro 5 271bn and still rose +6.6% in volume index due to record energy prices. Per region, and similarly to exports, imports from the Euro area fell -1.9% to Euro 16 921bn and declined -1.8% from the EU25 to Euro 21 122bn. Imports from the OECD rose +0.7% to Euro 27 024bn and stayed unchanged from the Asean region. Imports from Africa remained on the increase and rose +7.7% to Euro 1 775bn.

In one year, all industrial sectors saw exports rise significantly in value but at a much slower pace compared with the previous quarter record figures. The automobile industry stayed the exception as exports declined -3% Out of best performers, energy exports jumped +13.8% benefiting from record oil prices followed by intermediate goods +11.5% increase. Capital goods exports climbed +9.7% the food and agriculture industry +8.5% and agriculture-fisheries +6% The consumer goods sector exports rose +4.5% Per region, exports to the Asean region rebounded and increased +12.6% unusually faster than exports to Africa up +10.8% Exports to the EU 25 rose +6.5% and +5.9% to the Euro area outperforming thus exports to the OECD up +4.9% for the first time

In volume index, the automobile industry exports fell -1.6% but the agriculture-fisheries sector exports collapsed -9.5% Market shares stayed strong but rescinded compared with the previous quarter: the capital goods sector performed best with a volume index up +14.7% The food and agriculture industry exports volume index rose +7.9% while intermediate goods and the energy sector export volume rose nearly similarly respectively +5.8% and +5.7% The consumer goods sector export volume index stayed modest and increased +0.6%

On the same period and in value intermediate goods imports increased the most +11.6% (and +9.8% in volume index ) while capital goods rose a much tamer +2.1% (and fell -4.6% in volume index) The agriculture-fisheries imports rose +8.2% (and jumped +15% in volume index) while the food and agriculture industry’s increased +5.2% (+1.8% in volume index).The consumer goods sector imports climbed +6.3% (by half in volume index) Despite an extremely atone local market, the auto industry imports rose +4.4% (+4.6% in volume index) Energy imports rose +2.8% but increased +12.5% in volume index. Per region in value, imports rose the fastest from both the Asean region up +6.7% and the EU 25 +6.5% Imports from the OECD increased +5.6% and a close +5.8% from the Euro area. Imports from Africa climbed +5.7%  

Overall company creations fell -1% in Q3 to 26 471 entities as reactivations declined the hardest -4.9% to 4101 companies against the previous quarterly average. New companies also declined but to a lesser extent -0.3% while buy-backs grew a modest +0.4% to 3216 entities.

In one year, overall company creations fell -1.4% to nearly 350 000 entities impacted by reactivations -3.3% decline to 55 815 businesses. New companies grew +1.7% to 251 663 businesses and faster than buy-backs +1.3% rebound to 42 980 companies.

Per sector and in Q3, three groups out of a total 12 recorded strong declines : the food and agriculture industry new companies fell the hardest -8.6% as a pause from a hectic previous quarter while the construction sector new businesses equally rescinded and -2.1% to 4382 entities despite a sustained demand for housing due to a chronic shortage and country wide civil engineering works. Real estate dipped -1.7% as prohibitive rentals and property prices arched over a near saturated market. In addition, the services to companies sector new businesses and services to individuals fell each -0.9% The transport sector new companies stagnated against the previous quarter.

By contrast, three other groups recorded positive creation growth rates: the consumer goods sector new entities rose +2.2% following the previous quarter slow down as consumer demand stayed sustained and signaled market opportunities for new comers. The intermediate goods sector new businesses increased +4.7% despite an expected rise in company bankruptcies due to both clients demand for lower domestic prices and fierce competition from lesser priced subcontractors in neighboring countries. Similarly to intermediate goods, the capital goods sector new entities rose and +1.9% despite the automobile sector chronic slow down. The commerce group saw new entities climb a modest +0.3%

In one year, and out of sectors recording the hardest decline, real estate dived -7.3% due to a slow down in July and September. The consumer goods group rescinded -4.6% following August strong rebound similarly to the food and agriculture industry -2.3% drop. New entities within the commerce sector followed a similar patter and declined -1% and transport -3.3% against +13% in August again July. By contrast, other sectors recorded accrued company creations in September against the previous year: the intermediate goods sector new entities jumped +12.3% due to vibrant creation activities that month and, similarly, services to companies increased +3.4% along with construction +3.1% The services to individuals group saw company creations grow +1.2% while capital goods’ only rose +0.4% in one year although in September alone against the previous month, new entities increased +10.8%

CONSUMER PRICES INDEX - Q3 2006                                                   

Source: Insee

Despite the July heat wave, the overall consumer prices index remained nearly stable in Q3 climbing only +0.2% as the food price index shed -0.2% while the energy price index gained a modest +0.5% compared with previous inflationary periods. The manufactured products -1.2% price index cut contributed to the overall index tame growth along with the tobacco stable price index. The index sole increase was recorded by the services component +1.1% gain due to the rent index steep +0.7% rise. Out of the food price index, the fresh produce component dipped -3.8% as cold weather temperatures in August affecting consumer demand counterbalanced the July heat wave and a potential lack of supply. In August alone, that component price index fell -4.4% while the other food price index rose +0.4% on this quarterly period.

The clothing and shoes component, out of manufactured products, also fell in July, -4.2% but jumped +9% between July and September. The other manufactured products fell -0.6% this quarter. All other components recorded steep to mild increases : out of the services category, health care services grew +1.2% rent-water-garbage removal +0.3% and transport and communication +1.7% By contrast, the oil products price index remained stable as crude oil prices (U$D) per barrel had dived -15.4% in September from the previous month and to a lesser extent -7% in Euro/barrel to 58 from Euro/barrel 54.2

According to Eurostat revised figures and in Q3 harmonized indices of consumer prices for ll items (HICP) in the Euro area remained stable gaining +0.1% to 102.49 but increased the most in September against the previous month in Italy +0.7% and the Netherlands +0.5% France’s overall HICP fell -0.2% on the same period. In the Euro area, the food HICP estimate rose +0.3% in September and increased the most in Greece +0.7% and the least but fell -0.6% in Portugal. France’s HICP for food grew +0.4% Unlike food, the energy HICP fell -3.2% in the Euro area in September and recorded in Finland the strongest index price cut -5.6% France‘s declined -2.5% 

In one year to September, France’s overall consumer prices index rose +1.2% as the food prices index jumped +2.6% due to the fresh produce component record +12.5% price index increase.

The other food price index rose +1.2% (Although bread retail price remained stable in September and in one year, wheat trading prices jumped +27.2% to 407 cents/60 lb on the same period as a direct result of the July heat wave, breaking thus the 2003 record high prices due to another heat wave. May 1996 saw all records broken at 607.3/cents 60 lb.)

The services price index rose +2.2% with the rent component recording the usual +3.4% steep increase. The health care services component grew +3.6% while transport and communication declined -3.2% preventing that category from climbing further. The tobacco price index remained stable and the manufactured products price index shed -0.5% The clothing and shoes price index remained stable. The energy price index rose +0.8% but had jumped +7.2% to August. The oil products price index fell - 2.4%

In the Euro area (Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Spain, Ireland, Italy, Luxemburg, the Netherlands, Portugal ) to September and in one year, according to Eurostat, the overall consumer prices HICP (provisional) increased +1.7% and Portugal recorded the strongest increase +3% while Finland’s inverted the trend and rose +0.8% France’s HICP for food grew +1.5% On the same period, the Euro area’s energy HICP increased a modest +1.5% following a steep +8.1% in August. France’s energy HICP rose +0.9% (+7% in August) Italy recorded the strongest energy HICP increase +5.9% while the strongest cut was recorded by Finland’s -2.4% The food HICP in the Euro area grew +0.3% compared with +0.7% in Greece and -0.6% in Portugal. France’s HICP for food rose +0.4%  

ANNUAL INFLATION, measured in HICP, stood at 1.7% in the Euro area in September 2006 compared with 2.6% a year earlier but monthly inflation was nil. France’s monthly inflation rate fell -0.2% Germany’s -0.5% while Greece’s jumped +2% 

In the EU 25 annual inflation was 1.9% in September 2006, against 2.5% last year and Hungary’s +1.4% recorded the highest monthly HICP inflation rate along with Cyprus’ +1.2% The lowest annual inflation rates were recorded by Finland 0.8% Germany 1% and Sweden 1.2% while the highest rates involved Latvia and Hungary each 5.9% and Slovakia 4.5%

Source: Eurostat 

Euro area: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Spain, Ireland, Italy, Luxemburg, the Netherlands, Portugal

EU 25: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Spain, Ireland, Italy, Luxemburg, the Netherlands, Portugal, the Czech Republic, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden the United Kingdom

In the Euro area and measured by HICP, the highest inflation annual rates in September 2006 were housing 4% education 3.5% and food 3.3% The lowest annual rates were recorded by the communications component -3.2% along with recreation and culture 0.1% and transport 0.2% Components with the highest monthly rate included clothing 5.8% and education 1.2%, and the lowest rates were recorded by transport -2% hotels-restaurants -0.9% and recreation and culture

In September against the previous month, and according to Eurostat figures, the manufacturing index rescinded in both the Euro area and the EU 25 respectively -1.3% and -0.8% although in one year, each region saw their indices rise substantially +3.5% and +3.8%

France underperformed on all counts due to a slow down in production activities in Q3 leaving the overall industrial output index to fall -0.5% In addition, major output gaps with the exception of the capital goods production index modest +0.4% gain along with energy +0.8% impacted downwards the overall production: the automobile industry recorded another major fall and dipped -2.6% dragging along intermediate goods to -0.9% The food and agriculture industry production index stayed unchanged at 103.8 similarly to consumer goods -0.1% slight drop.

Source: Insee

Source: Insee

Source: Insee

Per industrial sector, the capital goods group and intermediate goods recorded each significant output slow downs : out of the CAPITAL GOODS sector, the boats-trains-planes and motorcycles category saw production rise a slight +1% and the mechanical equipment production index +0.5% The electric and electronic equipment production index stayed quasi stable or +0.2% The INTERMEDIATE GOODS sole output growth involved the textile category impressive +2% increase. The electric and electronic components output index fell -1.5% along with the chemical-rubber-plastic goods category as a direct result of the auto industry and capital goods’ boats-trains-planes-motorcycles production gaps. The mineral products output index did not fare better and slid -0.8% while the wood-paper cardboard products production index fell -1%

Source: Insee

The CONSUMER GOODS sector underperformed in nearly all categories due to massive imports: the leather and clothing production index fell -1.7% and pharmaceuticals-perfumes-personal care products a milder -0.1% The household equipment production index and publishing-book printing-reprints declined each -2.2% Despite the general industrial slowdown, the ENERGY sector saw its combustibles and fuels output index increase +7.5% but the water-gas-electricity category shed -0.2% mostly due to a chronic water shortage.

In one year, the overall output index stayed flat at 102.5 and the capital goods group +5.2% production gain remained the only sector on a positive trend.

Source: Insee

Source: Insee

The intermediate goods group stayed quasi unchanged or +0.2% while the automobile industry plunged -9.2% The food and agriculture industry output index grew +0.9% and consumer goods declined -0.4% The energy output index impacted by such industrial slow down fell -0.3% Out of all industrial categories and per sector, the consumer goods group recorded the strongest declines : the leather and clothing component production index dived -5.5% while publishing-book printing and reprints plunged -6% The household equipment output index also rescinded and dipped -3.5% Only one category, pharmaceuticals-personal care products, stayed on a positive production index trend and rose +1.5%

The capital goods group major production gap concerned the boats-trains-planes-motorcycles production index down -4.5% while two main components maintained their respective strong performances: the mechanical equipment production index increased +5.6% along with the electric-electronic equipment output index +2.4% gain.

Out of the intermediate goods sector, three consumer related categories saw their respective output indices decline massively: the textile production index fell -2.1% while the wood-paper cardboard products output index dipped -3.3% . The chemical-rubber-plastic goods output index decreased -2.6% For categories related to heavy industries, their respective production indices improved : with the construction sector remaining vibrant, the metal and metallic products output index increased +4.3% and mineral products +3% The electric-electronic components production index shed -0.9%

IN THE EURO AREA according to Eurostat estimates, the overall industrial output index, excluding construction, fell -1% in September against the previous month and decreased -0.6% in the EU 25 That same month and in the Euro area, France’s industrial output index declined -0.9% and Germany’s -0.4% Ireland recorded the hardest output index decline -3.6% followed by Greece and Luxembourg -2.9% each and Portugal -2.5% Only Finland recorded a positive production index +0.4% although modest. 

The intermediate goods output index in the Euro area fell -2.2% in September and  -1.6% in the EU 25 while durable consumer goods dived -3.3% in the Euro area and -1.3% in the EU 25 France’s intermediate goods output index declined -2.1% and Germany’s -1% while Ireland’s collapsed to an estimate -18.1% and Luxembourg’s -4.2% Portugal’s +3.7% recorded the highest intermediate goods output index that month and within the Euro area.  As regards capital goods, output fell -0.5% in the Euro area and stayed quasi stable or -0.2% in the EU 25. Ireland’s provisional +6.1% and Belgium’s +3.6% recorded the highest production indices while France’s rose a mild +0.5% and Germany’s +0.9%

In one year to September, industrial output increased +3.3% each in the Euro area and the EU 25 Best performers included Poland +14% Hungary +11.8% Slovakia +9.8% and Slovenia +9.6% while the largest output dips were recorded by Greece and Luxembourg -2.6% each. Durable consumer goods jumped +6.1% in the EU 25 compared with +4.2% in the Euro area.  On the same period, and despite a strong Euro in addition to record metal prices the intermediate goods output index grew +4.5% in each region. Germany’s intermediate goods production index jumped +8.8% and Portugal’s +4.3% 

The capital goods group output index increased +4.8% in the Euro area and +5.4% in the EU 25 Out of that region, Poland recorded the highest output index increase +24.7% while Germany’s and Finland’s out of the Euro area rose respectively +6.1% and +6.9%

THE LABOR MARKET- METROPOLE - Q3 2006                                                                       

Overall unemployment fell -2.1% in Q3 to a total 2 425 000 million jobless as all age groups benefited from some improvement: the under 25 jobless rate declined -2.1% to 563 000 while the 25 to 49 age bracket rate decreased the fastest -3.6% to 1 464 000 million. The over 50 group saw unemployment fall -2.9% to 398 000 jobless. On the same period and per gender male unemployment declined -2.9% as well to 1 188 000 million while female’s fell -3.4% to 1 237 000 For the under 25 category, unemployment decreased nearly similarly respectively -2% for males and -2.2% for females. As regards the intermediate age bracket, 25 to 49, female unemployment decreased -4% to 774 000 and male‘s -3.2% to 690 000 jobless. Inversely, for the over 50, male unemployment fell -3.4% to 201 000 against -2.5% to 197 000 unemployed for females.

Month on month on this quarterly period and according to Unedic figures, the national office for unemployment benefits, the number of jobseekers on training and those receiving state solidarity benefits increased the most: in July the number of jobseekers receiving unemployment benefits fell -1.5% against June (and -11.3% in one year) The number of state solidarity recipients stayed quasi stable but increased +2.6% in one year while the number of jobseekers on training fell -9.1% but jumped +25.2% in one year. In August, the number of unemployed receiving benefits kept declining -1.6% (and in one year -11.1%) while the number of state solidarity recipients rose +0.8% and increased again +2.6% in one year. The number of jobless on training grew +7.4% and again +24% in one year. The number of jobseekers exempt from a job search increased +3.9% to 419 542 from 403 921 in one year to August. In September, the number of jobseekers receiving unemployment benefits fell -0.8% and decreased -10.1% in one year while the number of state solidarity recipients stayed quasi stable and shed a modest -0.2% but increased +1.4% in one year.

IN THE EURO AREA that same month and according to Eurostat figures, unemployment remained stable at 7.8% against August and stood at 8% in the EU 25 France recorded, along with Germany, the highest unemployment rates respectively 8.9% and 8.7% (provisional) while the lowest rates within the Euro area were recorded by the Netherlands 4% Ireland 4.2% and Austria 4.7% 

Per age group, the under 25 jobless rate in the Euro area stood at 17% and slightly higher in the EU 25 at 17.5% Out of the EU 25 Denmark recorded one of the lowest rates 6.9% In the Euro area, the Netherlands’ 6.7% took the lead followed by Ireland’s 8.6% The highest jobseekers rates for that age category were recorded in the EU 25 by Poland’s 28.7% and Slovakia’s 24.4% In the Euro area Belgium’s 21.7% and France’s 21.6% rated the highest. 

In one year, unemployment in France fell -10.4% but remained above 2 million jobless. The 25 to 49 age bracket jobless rate declined -12.1% and the over 50  -11.1% The under 25 jobless rate decreased -5.2%

Per gender, both male and female unemployment fell at near similar rates: male unemployment declined overall -10% compared with -10.8% for females. The under 25 male jobless rate decreased -5.1% and -5.7% for females The intermediate age bracket, 25 to 49, saw female unemployment drop -12.5% and -11.6% for males while the over 50 male unemployment declined -11.6% compared with -10.6% for females.

Unemployment registrations counted an average 354 467 registrants in Q3 and increased +0.3% against the previous quarter. Nevertheless, registration categories reflected an extremely sluggish labor market: registrations due to the end of short term assignments jumped +60.7% and +64% in September alone against the previous month while registrations due to the end of temporary assignments increased +38.9% Registrations due to lay-offs rose +3.8% this quarter. In one year, overall registrations fell -5.3% and registrations due to the end of short term assignments decreased -8.6% Registrations due to the end of temporary assignments fell a modest -0.3% Registrations due to lay-offs declined -11.6%

JOB OFFERS in Q3 rose +3.6% to 284 533 offers as a slow down in August impacted two major job categories: long term offers (over six months and expressed in gross figures) fell -2.5% while short term offers (under six months and in gross figures) collapsed -16% Occasional job offers (in gross figures) skyrocketed by contrast +22.1% (and +5.9% in September against August)

In one year to September overall job offers underperformed but still rose +3.6% Long term offers dipped -2.6% due to major and repetitive gaps: in December, offers plunged -9.7% but collapsed -19% in April followed by an alarming -18% dive in June and -7% in August. Short term offers declined -0.8% due to a significant dip in November -10% and -11.8% in December but nearly shadowed long term jobs which they outperformed up to July. Occasional job offers jumped +13.4% but also underwent significant declines throughout: in October -18% followed by -17.8% in December, -15% in February and -8.7% in April prior to initiating a rebound from June and underlining by the same token a precarious labor market environment.

Copyright FranceNewsEconomy.com, FNE.eu.com 2004-2008, All rights reserved.      Personal Data. About FNE.eu.com             

All analyses and commentaries are the sole responsibility of FranceNewsEconomy.com, FNE.eu.com