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Key Indicators 2008 Q1 2008
2007 Q1 2007 more Q2 2007 more Q3 2007 more Q4 2007 more
2006 Q1 2006 more Q2 2006 more Q3 2006 more Q4 2006 more
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KEY INDICATORS Q4 2007: industrial output index,industrial producer prices, external trade,euro area trade balance, household consumption of manufactured products,company creations,euro area inflation, passenger car registrations,consumer prices index, imported raw materials index, order books index,turnover indices INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT INDEX - Q4 2007 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT performed in a roller coaster pattern impacted by demand, both local and foreign. In October, following a general September intra-EU slowdown, production rebounded +2.1% pushed up by the Automobile Industry +6.9% surge along with the Food and Agriculture Industry +2.4% gain and Intermediate Goods’ +1.9% The Consumer Goods production index grew at a more modest +0.4% and Capital Goods output increased +1%. Energy production rose +2.1% Out of Consumer Goods, household equipment output grew +2% and leather and clothing +1.7% while reprints and printing output fell -1.9% Intermediate Goods electric and electronic components rose +3.3% impacted by the Auto industry and Capital Goods sustained production similarly to chemical products-plastic-rubber output +3.1% gain.
Source: Insee
Source: Insee By November, OUTPUT fell -1.5% following the previous month +2.1% rebound and all sectors recorded significant underperformances: the FOOD and AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY production declined -2% INTERMEDIATE GOODS -1.6% the AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY -5.3% and CONSUMER GOODS -0.3% CAPITAL GOODS gained a modest +0.3%. ENERGY output recorded -2% decline and CONSTRUCTION -0.4% Auto manufacturing production dived -6.7% and auto equipment output -2.4% The Food and Agriculture Industry production of drinks plunged -6.8% but the production of Tobacco rose +5.4% The Consumer Goods sector and Intermediate Goods recorded similar production gaps: out of Consumer Goods household equipment, furniture and household appliances dipped respectively -3.1% -4.3% and -4.6% By contrast, the production of sound and pictures products rose +3.5% The shoes and leather products output plunged -5.5% and pharmaceuticals-perfumes-personal care products, usually best of class -0.5% Intermediate Goods chemicals-plastic-rubber products dipped -3.7% impacted by rubber -3% fall and plastic -1.6% decline along with non ferrous metals -1.2% decrease. Similarly, electric and electronic components production fell -1.3% December recorded a modest rebound +0.7% impacted by the Automobile Industry +3.5% surge and the Food and Agriculture industry +1.9% but overall, production underperformed amid a general slowdown initiated in November. CONSUMER GOODS output fell -0.4% pushed down by leather-clothing dipping -1.9% along with printing-reprints -0.9% and pharmaceuticals -0.3% while the production of household equipment gained a modest +0.4% CAPITAL GOODS output stayed unchanged +0.1% due to mechanical equipment negative performance -0.8% and electric-electronic equipment -1.3% although boats-trains-planes-motorcycles rebounded a vibrant +3.5% INTERMEDIATE GOODS production also remained unchanged as chemical products-plastic-rubber out of all components recorded the only positive gain +1.3% unlike textile diving -2.4% and electric-electronic components -1.6% In one year, output rose +1.5% pushed up by the Food and Agriculture Industry +4% INDUSTRIAL PRODUCER PRICES - Q4 2007 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCER PRICES for the domestic market (excluding construction) soared by the end of the quarter and lost the competitive edge that had been acquired and maintained for nine consecutive months, ranking only second to Finland. In October the index stood at 115.1 or +0.6% behind Finland’s 110.1 Germany’s prices stood at 119.8 slightly below the Euro area’s 120.4 index. The EU 27 producer prices index at 124.1 or +0.9% resulted from energy prices climbing +2.9% (+1.7% in the Euro area) in addition to other industrial sectors: Intermediate Goods producer prices rose +0.4% (+0.3% in the Euro area) Capital Goods and durable goods prices stayed stable or +0.1% equally to the Euro area‘s. Non durable consumer goods recorded +0.6% producer prices gain as well as in the Euro area. In October, the strongest price increases were recorded by Denmark +4.9% Lithuania +2.5% UK +2.2% and Bulgaria +1.4%
Source: Eurostat By November, French producer prices increased +0.8% similarly to the Euro area’s where Energy prices jumped +3.2% The steepest producer price increases were recorded by Belgium, the Netherlands and Greece averaging each +1.1% In December, French prices stayed quasi unchanged or +0.2% mirroring the Euro area, +0.1% where energy prices ended the quarter unchanged. Within the same zone, the steepest producer price increases were recorded by Belgium‘s +0.9% and Spain’s +0.5% Germany’s producer prices fell -0.1% and Finland recorded the strongest price cut -0.5% In one year, FRANCE’s producer prices soared +4.5% (+4.2% in November ) similarly to the EU 27 and slightly above the Euro area‘s +4.3% The strongest components price increases were recorded by Energy +8.3%, Non Durable Consumer Goods +4.2% and Intermediate Goods +3.4%. On the same period, the steepest producer prices involved Lithuania +15.6% Bulgaria +11.3% Denmark +11% and Greece +9% Finland performed best with a mild +1.7% prices increase
EXTERNAL TRADE - Q4 2007 The TRADE GAP widened to a record € -39.171bn in one year although December recorded a slight improvement € -4.279bn (compared with € -4.792bn the previous month). In October, Total EXPORTS rose +2.7% to € 34.1bn in three months and +5.1% in one year due to aircraft deliveries to Asia (first A380 super jumbo and 13 other airbus planes) and the US. Per sector, the Food and Agriculture exports rebounded to € 3.971bn Consumer Goods fell to € 5. 402bn The Automobile Industry exports surged to € 4.355bn and Intermediate Goods stayed stable at € 10.631bn. Per region however, exports to the EU decreased to € 23.968bn compared with €24.066bn in September.
Source: Insee On the same quarterly period, total IMPORTS grew at a slighter pace +2% 37.72bn but jumped +7.7% impacted by refined oil products +15% increase nearing USD 200mn. In November, the oil bill had already worsened the deficit € -4.792bn (a cumulative € -37.967bn in one year compared with € -26bn in Q3) Total IMPORTS rose +1% and +8.4% to € 38.096bn with energy imports reaching record levels + € 500mn in two months. Total EXPORTS fell -1% in three months and increased +2.9% in one year to € 33.304bn December saw total EXPORTS dip -2.1% in three months and rise a modest +2.1% in one year to € 33.126bn (€ 33.304bn last month) On the same period, Total IMPORTS grew +0.6% but jumped +7% to € 37.405bn. Energy imports alone totaled € 6.4bn compared with € 5.4bn in September. In 2007, the Euro area trade balance recorded € 28.3 bn trade surplus comared with €-9.3 bn in 2006. The EU 27 recorded a deficit €-185.7 bn compared with €-192.1 bn in 2006. In December, The Euro area trade balance first estimate with the rest of the world in December 07 recorded €-4.2bn deficit compared with €+2.4 bn in December 2006. In December 2007 and compared with the previous month ,seasonally adjusted exports fell -2.5% while imports rose + 0.7%.
Source: Eurostat Extra EU27 trade balance first estimate for December 2007 was a deficit €-17.9 bn compared with -10.1 bn a year ago. In December 2007, the deficit widened to €-16.8 bn , (compared with €-12.3 bn in December 2006) HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION OF MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS - Q4 2007 Household consumption of manufactured products picked up in December ending the quarter on a positive note despite consumers concerns over lower savings capacity. In October, household consumption fell -1.1% with retail sales dipping -1.2% and durables goods -2.3% Household equipment sales dived -3.6% car sales declined -1.1% and textile-leather purchases fell -2% Other manufactured products rose a mild +0.3% In November, household consumption of manufactured products stayed stable or 0.1% as durables goods sales had rebounded +3.6% and despite retail sales -0.7 dip. Sales of household equipment surged +4.3 and car sales +3.4% while textile-leather purchases dipped further -4% In December,Household consumption rose +2% pushed up by durables goods sales jumping +3.8% as car sales increased +5.8% and household equipment +1.7% Sales of textile-leather rebounded +2.5% and sales of other manufactured products grew +0.4% Sales out of the Commerce sector rose +1.5%
Source: Insee In Q4 and compared with Q3 however, household consumption slowed down to +1.9% (compared with +4% ) On the same period, sales of textile and leather fell -3.2% (against +2.6% in Q3). Similarly, sales of other manufactured products declined -0.4% preceded by a stable previous quarter. In one year, household consumption of manufactured products grew +3.9% with retail sales climbing +3% Sales of durables goods increased +11.6% impacted by car sales +12.3% increase and household equipment +12% Textile-leather purchases declined -0.8% and other manufactured products rose a modest +0.6% COMPANY CREATIONS -Q4 2007 The grim labor market boosted COMPANY CREATIONS which rebounded +4.8% in December and impacted the quarter’s trend upwards. In October however, company formations had fallen -1.5% to 28 167 new businesses but had increased +13.1% in one year to a total 319 811 new entities. All sectors had recorded a slow down with the exception of Intermediate Goods new entities increasing a mild +0.8% and a stable Construction sector. Out of groups impacted the most, Education Health Social Services new businesses dipped -9.4% Capital Goods -4.7% Transport -2.8% and Consumer Goods -2% . The Food and Agriculture Industry new businesses declined -0.8% Commerce -0.2% Real Estate -1.2% and Services to Companies -1.3% By November, company creations stagnated, or -0.1% to 27 889 new businesses as only four sectors sustained company creations momentum offset a general decline. The Transport sector recorded the strongest company creation rate +19% while Intermediate Goods by contrast declined -11.5% Among best performers, Education-Health-Social Services new businesses rose +4.4% and Construction +4.5% Capital Goods rose a more modest +0.9%
Source: Insee Decreases were recorded by the Food and Agriculture Industry -7.3% dip. The Services to Companies group saw new entities fall -3.8% Real Estate -2.8% and Consumer Goods -2.4% Services to Individuals also recorded negative figures, -1.5% along with Commerce -0.8% In December, a total 28 841 new businesses were recorded (a cumulative 350 308 new entities since January) although company formations declined -1.1% compared with the previous quarter to 28003 new businesses as some sectors slowed down. Best performers in December included Services to Companies new businesses +15.8% increase (6587 new companies) , Capital Goods +13.8% surge (272 new companies) Commerce +4.8% (7002 new companies)and Consumer Goods +4.3% rebounds (557 new businesses), along with Real Estate +3.1% (1648 new companies) following the previous month -2.8% dip. Decreases in company formations involved Transports -9.4% gap, (688 compared with 759 new companies) the Food and Agriculture Industry -7.5% fall (321 compared with 347) and, for the second consecutive month. New companies out of the Intermediate Goods group fell -2.9% (to 272 from 239 new companies) and to a much lesser extent Construction -0.3%. (to 4916 from 4929 new companies). By contrast new businesses in the Services to Individuals sector increased +1.5% (3708 new entities) and Education-Health Social Services +1.3% (2254 new businesses) In one year, although all sectors recorded significant company formation increases, the strongest rise were recorded by B2B groups: Capital Goods new entities jumped +22% Education-Health-Social Services +18.9% and Services to Companies +18.4%. Similarly, strong company formations included Commerce +13.6% Construction +13.3% and Transport +13.2% In addition, new entities out of the Intermediate Goods sector rose +9% and Consumer Goods +5.5% Services to Individuals new businesses grew +8% , a modest figure compared with previous months, and Real Estate a slight +0.5% due to the sub prime context. EURO AREA INFLATION -Q4 2007 The EURO AREA annual INFLATION ended at a record high 3.1% compared with 1.9% a year ago. In October, INFLATION had leaped to a steep 2.6% (1.6% a year ago) and in the EU 27 at 2.7% (1.8% last year). FRANCE’s 1.4% stayed stable and ranked among the lowest with Denmark, Finland and Sweden at 1.5% each. The highest annual inflation rates were recorded in Latvia 13.2% (11.5% the previous month) Bulgaria at 10.6% (11% in September) and Estonia 8.7% (7.5% the previous month).
Source: Eurostat - France= including DOM-TOM- all = provisional figuresIn the Euro area, the main components with the highest annual provisonal rates involved education 9.5% transport 4.1% and food 3.8%.The lowest annual rates were observed for communications. November initiated this upward trend when inflation jumped to a record high 3.1% Monthly inflation stood at +0.5%. Germany’s inflation rate rose to 3.3% and Spain’s to 4.1% The highest annual inflation rates were recorded by Latvia 13.7%, Bulgaria 11.4% and Estonia 9.3% and the lowest rates in the Netherlands 1.8%, Finland 2.1% and Slovakia 2.3% In the Euro area, the main components with the highest annual rates involved education 9.4%, transport 5.8% (4.1% last month) and food 4.3% (3.8% in October).The lowest annual were observed for communications -1.8%, recreation & culture 0.3% and clothing 1.2% The highest monthly rates were recorded by transport 1.5%, housing and food 0.8% each (1.2% for food last month) In December, EU 27 annual inflation stood at 3.2% (2.2% last year) The highest rates in the Euro area involved Luxembourg and Spain at 4.3% each and in the EU 27 Bulgaria’s 11.6% and Latvia’s 14% The lowest annual rates were recorded in the Netherlands’ 1.6%, Finland’s 1.9% and the United Kingdom 2.1% In the Euro area, the main components with the highest annual rates remained for the third consecutive month were education stable at 9.4%, transport 5.6% (5.8% in November) and food 4.8% (4.3% last month). The lowest annual rates were observed for communications -2.3% (1.8% last month) , recreation & culture 2.3% (0.3% in November) and clothing 1% (1.2% last month) The highest monthly rates were recorded by recreation and culture 2.3% hotels and restaurants 1.1% and food 0.7% The lowest rates involved clothing -0.8%, communications -0.4% and alcohol & tobacco and education 0% each. PASSENGER CAR REGISTRATIONS -Q4 2007 Passenger CAR REGISTRATIONS increased +2.8% in 2007 to 2 064 633 units. A record 182 638 cars were sold in or +21.2% increase according to CCFA. Foreign cars market share remained on the increase 48.2% compared with 45.7% in 2006. In October, passenger CAR REGISTRATIONS grew +9.1% and Foreign car sales +15.1% increase outperformed French cars’ +4.4% French cars regained their market share however 53.5% compared with previous periods while foreign cars 46.5% market penetration stayed vibrant. Citroen car sales jumped +19.8% while Peugeot rose a mild +0.6% Renault’s sales fell -0.7% but Renault Group gained +2.6%. Out of Foreign cars BMW saw sales jump +46.5%
Source: CCFA CONSUMER PRICES INDEX -Q4 2007 The CONSUMER PRICES INDEX recorded the steepest increases throughout the quarter, impacted by each food and energy products. In October, prices increased +0.5% taking the yearly inflation rate to 2% (Metropole only +0.3% and 1.6% respectively) The food component +0.6% gain along with energy +0.7% along with services sent then index to record levels. Out of the food index, the vegetables price index jumped +1.9% dairy and eggs increased +0.7% and oil and fats +0.8% The fish and seafood prices index fell a slight -0.3% Out of Manufactured products, the clothing and shoes component rose +0.6% while health products and other manufactured products remained stable offsetting a higher component price trend. The rent index, (including garbage removal and water distribution services), gained +0.7%.
Source: Insee In November, the index recorded another +0.5% increase impacting the yearling inflation rate to its steepest +2.4% in one year. (Metropole only +0.3% and 1.7% respectively) As in October, food and energy recorded the strongest increases, +0.7% and +4.1% Oil products prices jumped +6.7% Manufactured products prices stayed quasi stable or +0.2% along with services. In three months, prices rose substantially: out of the food component, the vegetables price index jumped +6.1% , and clothing +4.8% The combustibles prices index skyrocketed +20.6%, car leasing +3.1% In December, the index +0.4% gain pushed inflation higher, +2.6% (+2.4% in November) (Metropole only excluding Overseas Departments and Territories DOM-TOM +0.2% and +1.8% respectively) and, compared with the previous month, the food index recorded the steepest increase +0.6% followed by energy +0.5% and Services +0.4% Similarly and in three months, the food index jumped +1.8% energy +1.4% and Services +0.6% due to rent +1.5% gain. In one year, the most substantial increases were recorded by the food index inflationary +3.1% increase impacted by fresh produce +3.4% and excluding fresh produce +3% The Tobacco prices index jumped +6.2% Manufactured products prices index stayed modest by comparison +0.4% with health products prices declining -1.4% Energy prices skyrocketed +10.6% due to oil products prices +17.1% gain. The Services prices index rose +2.4% (Metropole only +2.6%) as rent-water-garbage removal prices increased +3.4% The Health Services prices index increased +1.8% RAW MATERIALS IMPORTED IN FRANCE -Q4 2007 RAW MATERIALS IMPORTED in France and expressed in Euro recorded some substantial price cuts but recorded inflationary trends when expressed n currency due to weak dollar. In October, the index for both foodstuff and industrial products increased +3.3% in currency compared with the previous month and jumped +14.20% in one year due to a low exchange rate rendering costs higher in dollar terms. In Euro, the index rose at much tamer rates, respectively +1.3% and +2.9% The Imported foodstuff index expressed in currency rose +3.3% impacted by tropical food +2% gain, oil seeds +4.3% and cereals +0.8% In one year , month on month oil seeds price index skyrocketed +95.6% tropical food +29.9% and cereals +9.9% In Euros, the food index jumped +45.7% with oil seeds +87.2% mirroring prices expressed in currency due to demand. By contrast the cereals price index fell -2.5% despite short supplies, and tropical food rose +15%
Source: Insee In November, RAW MATERIALS Prices for both foodstuff and industrial products imported in FRANCE fell -4.5% in Euro and a slighter -1.9% in currency impacted downwards by minerals and agro-industrial products. In one year month on month, prices jumped +11.8% in currency due to a weak dollar but stayed quasi stable or -0.1% in Euro. In Euro, and compared with last month, the index component strongest price cut was recorded by industrial products non ferrous metals -9.6% and steel -3.1% while precious metals only rose +2.1%. Tropical woods and coniferous trees sawn timbers prices also declined -3.1% and -5.2% Out of the food products index, sugar and tobacco recorded substantial price cuts as well, respectively -4.1% and -3.3% Tropical food prices fell -0.7% oil seeds rose +2.7% and cereals a mild +0.4% In currency, and on the same period, the steel prices index remained unchanged, non ferrous metals fell -6.7% while precious metals prices increased +5.1% pushed up by a weak dollar and stronger demand. The sugar prices index declined -1% and tobacco -0.2% but cereals, oil seeds and tropical food prices performed inversely to the index expressed in Euro climbing respectively +3.5% +4.8% and +2.4% Crude oil prices increased in currency +11.6% in currency and +8.1% in Euro while heating oil jumped +14.4% in currency and +10.8% in Euro. In one year, and due to a weak dollar in addition to sustained world demand, prices expressed in currency reached inflationary levels: crude oil prices per barrel in currency soared +57.6% and +38.5% in Euro. Heating oil prices followed a similar trend +52.9% in currency and +34.4% in Euro. Food products prices rose +57.3% in currency compared with +45% in Euro. Industrial products fell a mild -1% in currency but dipped -12.9% in Euro while agro-industrial products jumped +12.6% in currency but only rose +0.4% in Euro. Mineral products mirrored this overall trend and declined -4.4% in currency compared with -16.2% in Euro. December saw prices expressed in Euro fall -0.8% in Euro and a more substantial -1.3% in currency, but a weak dollar sent prices to inflationary levels in one year +9.9% In Euro, prices rose +1% On the same period crude oil prices jumped +46.6% and +33.1% in Euro. In Euro and compared with last month, the strongest gains were recorded by food products : the sugar price index rose +6.5% tropical food products +4.1% oil seeds +4.8% and cereals +5.3% Tobacco price index gained a mild +0.9% by comparison Out of industrial products, the natural rubber price index rose +6.8% steel and tropical wood each +0.9% but coniferous trees sawn timbers regained +4.2% following November -3.1% decline. Precious metals only rose +0.4% In currency and on the same period, the index did not quite mirror Euro prices although food products recorded the strongest gains: tropical food products +3.2% oil seeds +6.5% cereals +4.3% and sugar +5.6% The Tobacco price index stayed stable. Out of industrial products, non ferrous metal prices index dipped -7.2% and precious metal prices fell -0.3%. In one year, prices jumped in currency : heating oil +50.5% food products +63.6% agro-industrial products +13.2%. Industrial products fell -5.3% with mineral products -9.9% dip. In Euro, food products also recorded substantial gains, +52.5% but industrial products fell -13.9% while agro-industrial products prices rose +3.9% with mineral products declining massive -18.4% FARM PRODUCTS PRICES OCTober 2007: FARM PRODUCTS PRODUCER prices in FRANCE fell -1.5% compared with the previous month (+6.2% in September) but increased +15.9% in one year, according to Insee. Most grains producer price indices decline resulted from satisfactory local wheat harvesting in quality and volume: the ONIC survey reported that over 32 million tons of wheat were harvested, well above internal demand. A total 20 million tons of wheat are of superior quality (four million tons of soft wheat are graded E and 1 ) and 16 million tons are graded 1. Another 5.5 million tons are graded 3 for animal feed with a high level of proteins. Thus, the cereals prices index decreased -9.3% soft wheat -11.8% and corn -12.3%-- In one year however, Insee figures show that farm producer prices remain inflated by sustained world demand : cereals gained +61% with the soft wheat price index jumping +58.6% barley +76.7% and oil seeds +54.4% ORDER BOOKS INDEX - Q4 2007 France’s overall order books index ended the year, -2% in December compared with the previous month and momentum gained in the previous quarter rescinded. In the Euro area, all countries, except the Netherlands +2.6% order books gain in December compared with November, recorded a similar downwards trend taking the region’s index to dip -3.6% The EU 27 index fell by half as six member states showed positive order books: Latvia +23.2%, Poland +11.3% Romania +6.9% Slovakia +3.7% Lithuania +4.6% and Estonia +3%.The biggest order book dip was recorded by Bulgaria’s 14% Per sector and in the Euro area, the transport and equipment order book dived -10%basic metals and fabricated metal products -4% and textile-textile products -1.7% Machinery and equipment order books fell -1.7% while electrical-electronic equipment rose +1.6% In one year to December, FRANCE’s order books index fell -3.1% inversely to the Euro area’s +2.1% increase. Germany’s rose +6.9%. Per industrial sector, and in the same region, the machinery and equipment order books index increased the fastest +6.5% followed by electric and electronic equipment +4.3% chemicals and chemical products +2.8% The basic metals and fabricated metal products index +1.5%while transport equipment -1.5% TURNOVER INDICES - Q4 2007 Turnover indices slowed down in Q4 compared with the two previous quarters but Capital Goods and Intermediate Goods maintained performance as regards export turnovers, climbing respectively +5.6% and +0.9% On the same period, the Automobile Industry export turnover index rose +1.1% similarly to the previous quarter unlike Consumer Goods which declined -0.7% the Food and Agriculture Industry export turnover stayed unchanged.
Source: Insee Local turnovers performed unevenly: the Food and Agriculture Industry grew +3.6% Consumer Goods a modest +0.3% Intermediate Goods +0.7% the Automobile Industry stayed stable while Capital Goods grew +1.4% as a pause compared with the previous quarter impressive +11.9%
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